The Colts' sacks taken with Tyler Warren and without Tyler Warren
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Colts were 0.3 sacks under with Tyler Warren and 2.6 sacks over without Tyler Warren over their last 35 games, 23 games against 2. The plain averages are 1.8 and 5.0, a difference of 3.2. Both neutral-site games were with Tyler Warren.
Tyler Warren, tight end: 1,048 receiving yards, 110 receptions and 158 targets in 23 of those 35 games.
2 games without Tyler Warren is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
sacks taken a game over expected
A −2.9 difference in sacks taken over expected with Tyler Warren vs without Tyler Warren is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Tyler Warren and it comes up 11 times in 100.
A −3.2 difference in sacks taken with Tyler Warren vs without Tyler Warren is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | sacks taken | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27, 2024 | @ HOU | L | 5 | 2.4 | |
| Nov 3, 2024 | @ MIN | L | 3 | 2.4 | |
| Nov 10, 2024 | vs BUF | L | 4 | 2.0 | |
| Nov 17, 2024 | @ NYJ | W | 2 | 2.3 | |
| Nov 24, 2024 | vs DET | L | 0 | 2.0 | |
| Dec 1, 2024 | @ NE | W | 0 | 1.9 | |
| Dec 15, 2024 | @ DEN | L | 2 | 3.0 | |
| Dec 22, 2024 | vs TEN | W | 1 | 1.9 | |
| Dec 29, 2024 | @ NYG | L | 2 | 2.3 | |
| Jan 5, 2025 | vs JAX | W | 3 | 1.7 | |
| Sep 7, 2025 | vs MIA | W | 1 | 1.7 | |
| Sep 14, 2025 | vsDEN | W | 1 | 2.9 | |
| Sep 21, 2025 | @TEN | W | 0 | 2.1 | |
| Sep 28, 2025 | @ LA | L | 2 | 2.2 | |
| Oct 5, 2025 | vs LV | W | 0 | 1.8 | |
| Oct 12, 2025 | vs ARI | W | 1 | 1.8 | |
| Oct 19, 2025 | @ LAC | W | 1 | 2.2 | |
| Oct 26, 2025 | vsTEN | W | 3 | 1.8 | |
| Nov 2, 2025 | @ PIT | L | 5 | 1.9 | |
| Nov 9, 2025 | vs ATL (neutral) | W | 7 | 2.1 | |
| Nov 23, 2025 | @ KC | L | 0 | 1.7 | |
| Nov 30, 2025 | vsHOU | L | 1 | 2.3 | |
| Dec 7, 2025 | @JAX | L | 1 | 1.6 | |
| Dec 14, 2025 | @ SEA | L | 1 | 2.4 | |
| Dec 22, 2025 | vs SF | L | 2 | 1.1 | |
| Dec 28, 2025 | vsJAX | L | 2 | 1.4 | |
| Jan 4, 2026 | @HOU | L | 1 | 2.3 | |
| Sep 13, 2026 | vs BAL | L | 2 | 2.4 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | @KC | L | 0 | 2.4 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | vsHOU | W | 4 | 2.6 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | vs WAS (neutral) | W | 2 | 2.4 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | @PIT | L | 1 | 2.7 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | vsTEN | L | 6 | 2.1 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | @MIN | L | 4 | 2.7 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | @JAX | L | 4 | 2.2 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.0 in 2025, plus 0.0 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 61% in 2025, 20% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.
- 10 games in 2024 are neither with Tyler Warren nor without Tyler Warren: Tyler Warren had no game for the team that season, and sit out.