The Colts' points of margin with Tyler Warren and without Tyler Warren
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Colts were 5.7 points under with Tyler Warren and 4.3 points under without Tyler Warren in 2026, 6 games against 2. The plain averages are -8.2 and -6.0, a difference of 2.2. All 4 first-half games were with Tyler Warren.
Tyler Warren, tight end: 231 receiving yards, 34 receptions and 46 targets in 6 games this season.
2 games without Tyler Warren is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
with Tyler Warren
−5.7
without Tyler Warren
−4.3
-200
A −1.4 difference in points of margin over expected with Tyler Warren vs without Tyler Warren is about what you’d expect.
plain
-8.2
-6.0
-200
A −2.2 difference in points of margin with Tyler Warren vs without Tyler Warren is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Tyler Warrenwithout Tyler Warren
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | vs BAL | L | -18 | 0.9 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | @ KC | L | -3 | -3.8 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | vs HOU | W | 2 | -2.5 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | vs WAS (neutral) | W | 17 | -2.1 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | @ PIT | L | -12 | -3.4 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | vs TEN | L | -6 | 1.8 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | @ MIN | L | -6 | -5.1 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | @ JAX | L | -35 | -3.7 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.4 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 28% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.