The Colts' points of margin with Keenan Allen and without Keenan Allen
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Colts were 8.9 points under with Keenan Allen and 19.1 points over without Keenan Allen over their last 35 games, 7 games against 1. The plain averages are -11.1 and 17.0, a difference of 28.1. All 3 home games were with Keenan Allen. All 4 away games were with Keenan Allen. All 3 division games were with Keenan Allen.
Keenan Allen, receiver: 325 receiving yards, 36 receptions and 50 targets in 7 of those 35 games.
One game without Keenan Allen is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
with Keenan Allen
−8.9
without Keenan Allen
+19.1
-200
plain
-11.1
17.0
-200
The games
with Keenan Allenwithout Keenan Allen
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27, 2024 | @ HOU | L | -3 | -4.8 | |
| Nov 3, 2024 | @ MIN | L | -8 | -8.4 | |
| Nov 10, 2024 | vs BUF | L | -10 | -8.5 | |
| Nov 17, 2024 | @ NYJ | W | 1 | -1.2 | |
| Nov 24, 2024 | vs DET | L | -18 | -10.7 | |
| Dec 1, 2024 | @ NE | W | 1 | 2.1 | |
| Dec 15, 2024 | @ DEN | L | -18 | -7.4 | |
| Dec 22, 2024 | vs TEN | W | 8 | 4.9 | |
| Dec 29, 2024 | @ NYG | L | -12 | 3.3 | |
| Jan 5, 2025 | vs JAX | W | 3 | 4.5 | |
| Sep 7, 2025 | vs MIA | W | 25 | 8.9 | |
| Sep 14, 2025 | vsDEN | W | 1 | 3.4 | |
| Sep 21, 2025 | @TEN | W | 21 | 7.3 | |
| Sep 28, 2025 | @ LA | L | -7 | -7.1 | |
| Oct 5, 2025 | vs LV | W | 34 | 12.0 | |
| Oct 12, 2025 | vs ARI | W | 4 | 9.7 | |
| Oct 19, 2025 | @ LAC | W | 14 | 0.5 | |
| Oct 26, 2025 | vsTEN | W | 24 | 10.9 | |
| Nov 2, 2025 | @ PIT | L | -7 | 3.7 | |
| Nov 9, 2025 | vs ATL (neutral) | W | 6 | 6.1 | |
| Nov 23, 2025 | @ KC | L | -3 | 1.2 | |
| Nov 30, 2025 | vsHOU | L | -4 | -0.9 | |
| Dec 7, 2025 | @JAX | L | -17 | -3.3 | |
| Dec 14, 2025 | @ SEA | L | -2 | -10.0 | |
| Dec 22, 2025 | vs SF | L | -21 | 4.0 | |
| Dec 28, 2025 | vsJAX | L | -6 | -0.4 | |
| Jan 4, 2026 | @HOU | L | -8 | -4.5 | |
| Sep 13, 2026 | vs BAL | L | -18 | 0.9 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | @KC | L | -3 | -3.8 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | vsHOU | W | 2 | -2.5 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | vs WAS (neutral) | W | 17 | -2.1 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | @PIT | L | -12 | -3.4 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | vsTEN | L | -6 | 1.8 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | @MIN | L | -6 | -5.1 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | @JAX | L | -35 | -3.7 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.4 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 28% of the difference the model predicts.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.
- 27 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Keenan Allen nor without Keenan Allen: Keenan Allen had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.