The Colts' points allowed with Keenan Allen and without Keenan Allen
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Colts were 5.8 points over with Keenan Allen and 12.3 points under without Keenan Allen in 2026, 7 games against 1. The plain averages are 29.9 and 13.0, a difference of 16.9. All 3 home games were with Keenan Allen. All 4 away games were with Keenan Allen. All 3 division games were with Keenan Allen.
Keenan Allen, receiver: 325 receiving yards, 36 receptions and 50 targets in 7 games this season.
One game without Keenan Allen is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points allowed a game over expected
with Keenan Allen
+5.8
without Keenan Allen
−12.3
-10010
plain
29.9
13.0
203040
The games
with Keenan Allenwithout Keenan Allen
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points allowed | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | vs BAL | L | 41 | 22.4 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | @ KC | L | 33 | 24.2 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | vs HOU | W | 17 | 24.9 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | vs WAS (neutral) | W | 13 | 25.3 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | @ PIT | L | 34 | 24.0 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | vs TEN | L | 26 | 22.8 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | @ MIN | L | 16 | 24.6 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | @ JAX | L | 42 | 25.1 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 0.2 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 23% of the difference the model predicts.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.