The Colts' pass attempts with Keenan Allen and without Keenan Allen
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Colts were 0.4 pass attempts over with Keenan Allen and 0.1 pass attempts over without Keenan Allen in 2026, 7 games against 1. The plain averages are 33.7 and 34.0, a difference of 0.3. Expected was 0.6 pass attempts lower with Keenan Allen than without Keenan Allen. All 3 home games were with Keenan Allen. All 4 away games were with Keenan Allen. All 3 division games were with Keenan Allen.
Keenan Allen, receiver: 325 receiving yards, 36 receptions and 50 targets in 7 games this season.
One game without Keenan Allen is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
pass attempts a game over expected
with Keenan Allen
+0.4
without Keenan Allen
+0.1
-10010
plain
33.7
34.0
3040
The games
with Keenan Allenwithout Keenan Allen
| Side | Date | Game | Result | pass attempts | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | vs BAL | L | 31 | 32.9 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | @ KC | L | 31 | 34.6 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | vs HOU | W | 36 | 33.5 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | vs WAS (neutral) | W | 34 | 33.9 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | @ PIT | L | 44 | 33.1 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | vs TEN | L | 42 | 32.6 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | @ MIN | L | 22 | 32.4 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | @ JAX | L | 30 | 33.9 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.1 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 34% of the difference the model predicts.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.