The Buccaneers' rushing yards with Baker Mayfield and without Baker Mayfield
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Buccaneers were 41.3 yards over with Baker Mayfield and 32.3 yards over without Baker Mayfield in 2026, 5 games against 3. The plain averages are 173.0 and 161.3, a difference of 11.7. Both division games were with Baker Mayfield.
Baker Mayfield, quarterback: 679 passing yards, 110 pass attempts and 68 completions in 5 games this season, 9% of TB’s rushing yards in those games.
3 games without Baker Mayfield is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
rushing yards a game over expected
A +9.0 difference in rushing yards over expected with Baker Mayfield vs without Baker Mayfield is about what you’d expect.
A +11.7 difference in rushing yards with Baker Mayfield vs without Baker Mayfield is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | rushing yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | @ CIN | L | 89 | 141.3 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | vs CLE | L | 137 | 136.8 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | vs MIN | L | 57 | 140.0 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | vs GB | L | 141 | 124.6 | |
| Oct 8, 2026 | @ DAL | W | 241 | 142.0 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | vs PIT | L | 102 | 120.6 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | @ CAR | W | 258 | 127.0 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | vs ATL | W | 324 | 113.6 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 32% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.