The Buccaneers' points with Emeka Egbuka and since Emeka Egbuka’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Buccaneers were 0.9 points under with Emeka Egbuka and 6.2 points over since Emeka Egbuka’s last game over their last 35 games, 23 games against 2. The plain averages are 21.7 and 29.5, a difference of 7.8. All 17 games outside the division were with Emeka Egbuka. Both games on a short week were with Emeka Egbuka.
Emeka Egbuka, receiver: 1,178 receiving yards, 91 receptions and 176 targets in 23 of those 35 games.
2 games since Emeka Egbuka’s last game is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points a game over expected
A −7.1 difference in points over expected with Emeka Egbuka vs since Emeka Egbuka’s last game is about what you’d expect.
A −7.8 difference in points with Emeka Egbuka vs since Emeka Egbuka’s last game is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Emeka Egbuka and it comes up 19 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 2024 | @ KC | L | 24 | 23.7 | |
| Nov 10, 2024 | vs SF | L | 20 | 29.6 | |
| Nov 24, 2024 | @ NYG | W | 30 | 25.9 | |
| Dec 1, 2024 | @ CAR | W | 26 | 32.4 | |
| Dec 8, 2024 | vs LV | W | 28 | 29.3 | |
| Dec 15, 2024 | @ LAC | W | 40 | 21.8 | |
| Dec 22, 2024 | @ DAL | L | 24 | 28.8 | |
| Dec 29, 2024 | vsCAR | W | 48 | 32.0 | |
| Jan 5, 2025 | vs NO | W | 27 | 27.7 | |
| Jan 12, 2025 | vs WAS | L | 20 | 29.0 | |
| Sep 7, 2025 | @ ATL | W | 23 | 22.9 | |
| Sep 15, 2025 | @ HOU | W | 20 | 16.9 | |
| Sep 21, 2025 | vs NYJ | W | 29 | 28.7 | |
| Sep 28, 2025 | vs PHI | L | 25 | 20.6 | |
| Oct 5, 2025 | @ SEA | W | 38 | 15.3 | |
| Oct 12, 2025 | vsSF | W | 30 | 22.1 | |
| Oct 20, 2025 | @ DET | L | 9 | 24.8 | |
| Oct 26, 2025 | @NO | W | 23 | 21.8 | |
| Nov 9, 2025 | vs NE | L | 23 | 21.4 | |
| Nov 16, 2025 | @ BUF | L | 32 | 22.0 | |
| Nov 23, 2025 | @ LA | L | 7 | 21.3 | |
| Nov 30, 2025 | vs ARI | W | 20 | 27.0 | |
| Dec 7, 2025 | vsNO | L | 20 | 23.8 | |
| Dec 11, 2025 | vsATL | L | 28 | 24.2 | |
| Dec 21, 2025 | @CAR | L | 20 | 21.8 | |
| Dec 28, 2025 | @ MIA | L | 17 | 24.9 | |
| Jan 3, 2026 | vsCAR | W | 16 | 23.9 | |
| Sep 13, 2026 | @ CIN | L | 27 | 23.1 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | vs CLE | L | 19 | 23.2 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | vs MIN | L | 16 | 20.5 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | vs GB | L | 14 | 22.7 | |
| Oct 8, 2026 | @DAL | W | 24 | 24.8 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | vs PIT | L | 19 | 21.9 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | @CAR | W | 43 | 22.9 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | vsATL | W | 16 | 23.6 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.1 in 2025, plus 0.2 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 69% in 2025, 23% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.
- 10 games in 2024 are neither with Emeka Egbuka nor since Emeka Egbuka’s last game: Emeka Egbuka had no game for the team that season, and sit out.