The Buccaneers' points of margin with Jalon Daniels and without Jalon Daniels
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Buccaneers were 2.0 points under with Jalon Daniels and 5.1 points over without Jalon Daniels over their last 35 games, 3 games against 5. The plain averages are -0.7 and 5.8, a difference of 6.5. Both division games were without Jalon Daniels.
Jalon Daniels, quarterback: 501 passing yards, 98 pass attempts and 60 completions in 5 of those 35 games.
3 games with Jalon Daniels is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
A −7.2 difference in points of margin over expected with Jalon Daniels vs without Jalon Daniels is about what you’d expect.
A −6.5 difference in points of margin with Jalon Daniels vs without Jalon Daniels is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 2024 | @ KC | L | -6 | 0.9 | |
| Nov 10, 2024 | vs SF | L | -3 | 8.3 | |
| Nov 24, 2024 | @ NYG | W | 23 | 8.2 | |
| Dec 1, 2024 | @ CAR | W | 3 | 12.8 | |
| Dec 8, 2024 | vs LV | W | 15 | 11.2 | |
| Dec 15, 2024 | @ LAC | W | 23 | -2.0 | |
| Dec 22, 2024 | @ DAL | L | -2 | 9.1 | |
| Dec 29, 2024 | vsCAR | W | 34 | 13.2 | |
| Jan 5, 2025 | vs NO | W | 8 | 9.6 | |
| Jan 12, 2025 | vs WAS | L | -3 | 3.2 | |
| Sep 7, 2025 | @ ATL | W | 3 | -0.7 | |
| Sep 15, 2025 | @ HOU | W | 1 | -10.5 | |
| Sep 21, 2025 | vs NYJ | W | 2 | 11.8 | |
| Sep 28, 2025 | vs PHI | L | -6 | -0.2 | |
| Oct 5, 2025 | @ SEA | W | 3 | -15.5 | |
| Oct 12, 2025 | vsSF | W | 11 | -4.2 | |
| Oct 20, 2025 | @ DET | L | -15 | -4.4 | |
| Oct 26, 2025 | @NO | W | 20 | -0.6 | |
| Nov 9, 2025 | vs NE | L | -5 | -3.7 | |
| Nov 16, 2025 | @ BUF | L | -12 | -5.9 | |
| Nov 23, 2025 | @ LA | L | -27 | -10.2 | |
| Nov 30, 2025 | vs ARI | W | 3 | 4.8 | |
| Dec 7, 2025 | vsNO | L | -4 | 5.6 | |
| Dec 11, 2025 | vsATL | L | -1 | 3.7 | |
| Dec 21, 2025 | @CAR | L | -3 | 0.1 | |
| Dec 28, 2025 | @ MIA | L | -3 | 2.8 | |
| Jan 3, 2026 | vsCAR | W | 2 | 3.5 | |
| Sep 13, 2026 | @ CIN | L | -6 | -0.2 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | vs CLE | L | -4 | 3.6 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | vs MIN | L | -7 | 0.1 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | vs GB | L | -3 | 1.2 | |
| Oct 8, 2026 | @DAL | W | 8 | 1.9 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | vs PIT | L | -7 | 1.1 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | @CAR | W | 30 | -0.8 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | vsATL | W | 16 | 0.7 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.4 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 28% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 27 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Jalon Daniels nor without Jalon Daniels: Jalon Daniels had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.