The Buccaneers' points of margin with Baker Mayfield and without Baker Mayfield
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Buccaneers were 1.1 points over with Baker Mayfield and 2.0 points under without Baker Mayfield over their last 35 games, 32 games against 3. The plain averages are 2.8 and -0.7, a difference of 3.5. All 11 division games were with Baker Mayfield. Both games after a bye were with Baker Mayfield.
Baker Mayfield, quarterback: 6,868 passing yards, 957 pass attempts and 631 completions in 32 of those 35 games.
3 games without Baker Mayfield is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
A +3.2 difference in points of margin over expected with Baker Mayfield vs without Baker Mayfield is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Baker Mayfield and it comes up 17 times in 100.
A +3.5 difference in points of margin with Baker Mayfield vs without Baker Mayfield is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 2024 | @ KC | L | -6 | 0.9 | |
| Nov 10, 2024 | vs SF | L | -3 | 8.3 | |
| Nov 24, 2024 | @ NYG | W | 23 | 8.2 | |
| Dec 1, 2024 | @ CAR | W | 3 | 12.8 | |
| Dec 8, 2024 | vs LV | W | 15 | 11.2 | |
| Dec 15, 2024 | @ LAC | W | 23 | -2.0 | |
| Dec 22, 2024 | @ DAL | L | -2 | 9.1 | |
| Dec 29, 2024 | vsCAR | W | 34 | 13.2 | |
| Jan 5, 2025 | vs NO | W | 8 | 9.6 | |
| Jan 12, 2025 | vs WAS | L | -3 | 3.2 | |
| Sep 7, 2025 | @ ATL | W | 3 | -0.7 | |
| Sep 15, 2025 | @ HOU | W | 1 | -10.5 | |
| Sep 21, 2025 | vs NYJ | W | 2 | 11.8 | |
| Sep 28, 2025 | vs PHI | L | -6 | -0.2 | |
| Oct 5, 2025 | @ SEA | W | 3 | -15.5 | |
| Oct 12, 2025 | vsSF | W | 11 | -4.2 | |
| Oct 20, 2025 | @ DET | L | -15 | -4.4 | |
| Oct 26, 2025 | @NO | W | 20 | -0.6 | |
| Nov 9, 2025 | vs NE | L | -5 | -3.7 | |
| Nov 16, 2025 | @ BUF | L | -12 | -5.9 | |
| Nov 23, 2025 | @ LA | L | -27 | -10.2 | |
| Nov 30, 2025 | vs ARI | W | 3 | 4.8 | |
| Dec 7, 2025 | vsNO | L | -4 | 5.6 | |
| Dec 11, 2025 | vsATL | L | -1 | 3.7 | |
| Dec 21, 2025 | @CAR | L | -3 | 0.1 | |
| Dec 28, 2025 | @ MIA | L | -3 | 2.8 | |
| Jan 3, 2026 | vsCAR | W | 2 | 3.5 | |
| Sep 13, 2026 | @ CIN | L | -6 | -0.2 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | vs CLE | L | -4 | 3.6 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | vs MIN | L | -7 | 0.1 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | vs GB | L | -3 | 1.2 | |
| Oct 8, 2026 | @DAL | W | 8 | 1.9 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | vs PIT | L | -7 | 1.1 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | @CAR | W | 30 | -0.8 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | vsATL | W | 16 | 0.7 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.9 in 2024, plus 2.3 in 2025, plus 0.4 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 78% in 2024, 77% in 2025, 28% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.