The Buccaneers' points of margin with Antoine Winfield Jr. and without Antoine Winfield Jr.
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Buccaneers were 1.2 points under with Antoine Winfield Jr. and 8.9 points over without Antoine Winfield Jr. over their last 35 games, 28 games against 7. The plain averages are -0.2 and 13.4, a difference of 13.6. Both games after a bye were with Antoine Winfield Jr..
Antoine Winfield Jr., defensive back: 2 sacks and 2 interceptions in 27 of those 35 games.
points of margin a game over expected
with Antoine Winfield Jr.
−1.2
without Antoine Winfield Jr.
+8.9
020
A −10.0 difference in points of margin over expected with Antoine Winfield Jr. vs without Antoine Winfield Jr. is about what you’d expect.
plain
-0.2
13.4
-20020
A −13.6 difference in points of margin with Antoine Winfield Jr. vs without Antoine Winfield Jr. is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Antoine Winfield Jr. and it comes up 6 times in 100.
The games
with Antoine Winfield Jr.without Antoine Winfield Jr.
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 2024 | @ KC | L | -6 | 0.9 | |
| Nov 10, 2024 | vs SF | L | -3 | 8.3 | |
| Nov 24, 2024 | @ NYG | W | 23 | 8.2 | |
| Dec 1, 2024 | @ CAR | W | 3 | 12.8 | |
| Dec 8, 2024 | vs LV | W | 15 | 11.2 | |
| Dec 15, 2024 | @ LAC | W | 23 | -2.0 | |
| Dec 22, 2024 | @ DAL | L | -2 | 9.1 | |
| Dec 29, 2024 | vsCAR | W | 34 | 13.2 | |
| Jan 5, 2025 | vs NO | W | 8 | 9.6 | |
| Jan 12, 2025 | vs WAS | L | -3 | 3.2 | |
| Sep 7, 2025 | @ ATL | W | 3 | -0.7 | |
| Sep 15, 2025 | @ HOU | W | 1 | -10.5 | |
| Sep 21, 2025 | vs NYJ | W | 2 | 11.8 | |
| Sep 28, 2025 | vs PHI | L | -6 | -0.2 | |
| Oct 5, 2025 | @ SEA | W | 3 | -15.5 | |
| Oct 12, 2025 | vsSF | W | 11 | -4.2 | |
| Oct 20, 2025 | @ DET | L | -15 | -4.4 | |
| Oct 26, 2025 | @NO | W | 20 | -0.6 | |
| Nov 9, 2025 | vs NE | L | -5 | -3.7 | |
| Nov 16, 2025 | @ BUF | L | -12 | -5.9 | |
| Nov 23, 2025 | @ LA | L | -27 | -10.2 | |
| Nov 30, 2025 | vs ARI | W | 3 | 4.8 | |
| Dec 7, 2025 | vsNO | L | -4 | 5.6 | |
| Dec 11, 2025 | vsATL | L | -1 | 3.7 | |
| Dec 21, 2025 | @CAR | L | -3 | 0.1 | |
| Dec 28, 2025 | @ MIA | L | -3 | 2.8 | |
| Jan 3, 2026 | vsCAR | W | 2 | 3.5 | |
| Sep 13, 2026 | @ CIN | L | -6 | -0.2 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | vs CLE | L | -4 | 3.6 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | vs MIN | L | -7 | 0.1 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | vs GB | L | -3 | 1.2 | |
| Oct 8, 2026 | @DAL | W | 8 | 1.9 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | vs PIT | L | -7 | 1.1 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | @CAR | W | 30 | -0.8 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | vsATL | W | 16 | 0.7 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.9 in 2024, plus 2.3 in 2025, plus 0.4 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 78% in 2024, 77% in 2025, 28% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.