The Buccaneers' points of margin with Antoine Winfield Jr. and without Antoine Winfield Jr.
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Buccaneers were 1.9 points under with Antoine Winfield Jr. and 9.6 points over without Antoine Winfield Jr. in 2026, 5 games against 3. The plain averages are -0.8 and 10.3, a difference of 11.1. All 4 first-half games were with Antoine Winfield Jr..
Antoine Winfield Jr., defensive back: 5 games this season.
3 games without Antoine Winfield Jr. is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
A −11.5 difference in points of margin over expected with Antoine Winfield Jr. vs without Antoine Winfield Jr. is about what you’d expect.
A −11.1 difference in points of margin with Antoine Winfield Jr. vs without Antoine Winfield Jr. is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | @ CIN | L | -6 | -0.2 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | vs CLE | L | -4 | 3.6 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | vs MIN | L | -7 | 0.1 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | vs GB | L | -3 | 1.2 | |
| Oct 8, 2026 | @ DAL | W | 8 | 1.9 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | vs PIT | L | -7 | 1.1 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | @ CAR | W | 30 | -0.8 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | vs ATL | W | 16 | 0.7 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.4 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 28% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.