The Buccaneers' points allowed with Jalen McMillan and without Jalen McMillan
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Buccaneers were 1.6 points under with Jalen McMillan and 0.8 points under without Jalen McMillan over their last 35 games, 14 games against 21. The plain averages are 19.6 and 23.0, a difference of 3.4.
Jalen McMillan, receiver: 571 receiving yards, 41 receptions and 56 targets in 13 of those 35 games.
points allowed a game over expected
with Jalen McMillan
−1.6
without Jalen McMillan
−0.8
-20-10010
A −0.7 difference in points allowed over expected with Jalen McMillan vs without Jalen McMillan is about what you’d expect.
plain
19.6
23.0
02040
A −3.4 difference in points allowed with Jalen McMillan vs without Jalen McMillan is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Jalen McMillan and it comes up 6 times in 100.
The games
with Jalen McMillanwithout Jalen McMillan
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points allowed | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 2024 | @ KC | L | 30 | 22.9 | |
| Nov 10, 2024 | vs SF | L | 23 | 22.3 | |
| Nov 24, 2024 | @ NYG | W | 7 | 18.7 | |
| Dec 1, 2024 | @ CAR | W | 23 | 21.1 | |
| Dec 8, 2024 | vs LV | W | 13 | 19.4 | |
| Dec 15, 2024 | @ LAC | W | 17 | 23.6 | |
| Dec 22, 2024 | @ DAL | L | 26 | 20.8 | |
| Dec 29, 2024 | vsCAR | W | 14 | 20.4 | |
| Jan 5, 2025 | vs NO | W | 19 | 19.2 | |
| Jan 12, 2025 | vs WAS | L | 23 | 26.2 | |
| Sep 7, 2025 | @ ATL | W | 20 | 23.5 | |
| Sep 15, 2025 | @ HOU | W | 19 | 26.3 | |
| Sep 21, 2025 | vs NYJ | W | 27 | 18.1 | |
| Sep 28, 2025 | vs PHI | L | 31 | 20.8 | |
| Oct 5, 2025 | @ SEA | W | 35 | 29.2 | |
| Oct 12, 2025 | vsSF | W | 19 | 25.9 | |
| Oct 20, 2025 | @ DET | L | 24 | 28.7 | |
| Oct 26, 2025 | @NO | W | 3 | 22.4 | |
| Nov 9, 2025 | vs NE | L | 28 | 24.7 | |
| Nov 16, 2025 | @ BUF | L | 44 | 27.3 | |
| Nov 23, 2025 | @ LA | L | 34 | 30.4 | |
| Nov 30, 2025 | vs ARI | W | 17 | 22.8 | |
| Dec 7, 2025 | vsNO | L | 24 | 18.8 | |
| Dec 11, 2025 | vsATL | L | 29 | 20.9 | |
| Dec 21, 2025 | @CAR | L | 23 | 21.7 | |
| Dec 28, 2025 | @ MIA | L | 20 | 22.3 | |
| Jan 3, 2026 | vsCAR | W | 14 | 20.7 | |
| Sep 13, 2026 | @ CIN | L | 33 | 23.3 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | vs CLE | L | 23 | 20.2 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | vs MIN | L | 23 | 20.4 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | vs GB | L | 17 | 21.7 | |
| Oct 8, 2026 | @DAL | W | 16 | 23.4 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | vs PIT | L | 26 | 21.1 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | @CAR | W | 13 | 23.6 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | vsATL | W | 0 | 23.0 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 0.9 in 2024, minus 1.1 in 2025, minus 0.2 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 68% in 2024, 69% in 2025, 23% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.