The Buccaneers' points allowed with Jalen McMillan and without Jalen McMillan
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Buccaneers were 2.7 points over with Jalen McMillan and 5.2 points under without Jalen McMillan in 2026, 2 games against 6. The plain averages are 23.0 and 17.5, a difference of 5.5. All 3 away games were without Jalen McMillan. Both division games were without Jalen McMillan. All 4 second-half games were without Jalen McMillan.
Jalen McMillan, receiver: 1 target in 1 game this season.
2 games with Jalen McMillan is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points allowed a game over expected
A +7.9 difference in points allowed over expected with Jalen McMillan vs without Jalen McMillan is about what you’d expect.
A +5.5 difference in points allowed with Jalen McMillan vs without Jalen McMillan is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points allowed | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | @ CIN | L | 33 | 23.3 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | vs CLE | L | 23 | 20.2 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | vs MIN | L | 23 | 20.4 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | vs GB | L | 17 | 21.7 | |
| Oct 8, 2026 | @ DAL | W | 16 | 23.4 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | vs PIT | L | 26 | 21.1 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | @ CAR | W | 13 | 23.6 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | vs ATL | W | 0 | 23.0 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 0.2 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 23% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.