The Buccaneers' points allowed with Antoine Winfield Jr. and without Antoine Winfield Jr.
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Buccaneers were 2.5 points under with Antoine Winfield Jr. and 4.4 points under without Antoine Winfield Jr. in 2026, 5 games against 3. The plain averages are 19.2 and 18.3, a difference of 0.9. Expected was 1.0 points lower with Antoine Winfield Jr. than without Antoine Winfield Jr.. All 4 first-half games were with Antoine Winfield Jr..
Antoine Winfield Jr., defensive back: 5 games this season.
3 games without Antoine Winfield Jr. is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points allowed a game over expected
A +1.8 difference in points allowed over expected with Antoine Winfield Jr. vs without Antoine Winfield Jr. is about what you’d expect.
A +0.9 difference in points allowed with Antoine Winfield Jr. vs without Antoine Winfield Jr. is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points allowed | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | @ CIN | L | 33 | 23.3 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | vs CLE | L | 23 | 20.2 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | vs MIN | L | 23 | 20.4 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | vs GB | L | 17 | 21.7 | |
| Oct 8, 2026 | @ DAL | W | 16 | 23.4 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | vs PIT | L | 26 | 21.1 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | @ CAR | W | 13 | 23.6 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | vs ATL | W | 0 | 23.0 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 0.2 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 23% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.