The Buccaneers' passing yards with Baker Mayfield and without Baker Mayfield
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Buccaneers were 62.6 yards under with Baker Mayfield and 34.6 yards under without Baker Mayfield in 2026, 5 games against 3. The plain averages are 135.8 and 167.0, a difference of 31.2. Both division games were with Baker Mayfield.
Baker Mayfield, quarterback: 679 passing yards, 110 pass attempts and 68 completions in 5 games this season, 100% of TB’s passing yards in those games.
3 games without Baker Mayfield is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
passing yards a game over expected
A −28.0 difference in passing yards over expected with Baker Mayfield vs without Baker Mayfield is about what you’d expect.
A −31.2 difference in passing yards with Baker Mayfield vs without Baker Mayfield is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | passing yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | @ CIN | L | 216 | 217.8 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | vs CLE | L | 182 | 192.3 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | vs MIN | L | 217 | 161.9 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | vs GB | L | 148 | 192.2 | |
| Oct 8, 2026 | @ DAL | W | 189 | 203.7 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | vs PIT | L | 164 | 209.0 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | @ CAR | W | 64 | 204.6 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | vs ATL | W | 0 | 215.5 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.5 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.