The Buccaneers' pass attempts with Jalon Daniels and without Jalon Daniels
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Buccaneers were 1.5 pass attempts over with Jalon Daniels and 8.4 pass attempts under without Jalon Daniels in 2026, 3 games against 5. The plain averages are 31.7 and 22.6, a difference of 9.1. Both division games were without Jalon Daniels.
Jalon Daniels, quarterback: 501 passing yards, 98 pass attempts and 60 completions in 5 games this season, 69% of TB’s pass attempts in those games.
3 games with Jalon Daniels is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
pass attempts a game over expected
A +9.9 difference in pass attempts over expected with Jalon Daniels vs without Jalon Daniels is about what you’d expect.
A +9.1 difference in pass attempts with Jalon Daniels vs without Jalon Daniels is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | pass attempts | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | @ CIN | L | 28 | 31.9 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | vs CLE | L | 34 | 29.9 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | vs MIN | L | 37 | 26.8 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | vs GB | L | 27 | 31.5 | |
| Oct 8, 2026 | @ DAL | W | 25 | 29.6 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | vs PIT | L | 43 | 29.4 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | @ CAR | W | 11 | 32.8 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | vs ATL | W | 3 | 33.7 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.1 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 34% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.