The Buccaneers' carries with Sean Tucker and without Sean Tucker
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Buccaneers were 8.7 carries over with Sean Tucker and 5.8 carries under without Sean Tucker in 2026, 6 games against 2. The plain averages are 36.8 and 22.5, a difference of 14.3. Both division games were with Sean Tucker.
Sean Tucker, running back: 80 rushing yards and 15 carries in 4 games this season, 9% of TB’s carries in those games.
2 games without Sean Tucker is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
carries a game over expected
A +14.5 difference in carries over expected with Sean Tucker vs without Sean Tucker is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Sean Tucker and it comes up 13 times in 100.
A +14.3 difference in carries with Sean Tucker vs without Sean Tucker is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Sean Tucker and it comes up 5 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | @ CIN | L | 20 | 28.9 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | vs CLE | L | 25 | 29.1 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | vs MIN | L | 21 | 28.4 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | vs GB | L | 31 | 28.3 | |
| Oct 8, 2026 | @ DAL | W | 39 | 29.1 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | vs PIT | L | 25 | 27.7 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | @ CAR | W | 49 | 27.3 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | vs ATL | W | 56 | 26.8 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.2 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 21% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.