The Buccaneers' carries with Emeka Egbuka and since Emeka Egbuka’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Buccaneers were 1.8 carries under with Emeka Egbuka and 25.5 carries over since Emeka Egbuka’s last game in 2026, 6 games against 2. The plain averages are 26.8 and 52.5, a difference of 25.7. Both division games were since Emeka Egbuka’s last game. All 6 games outside the division were with Emeka Egbuka. All 4 first-half games were with Emeka Egbuka.
Emeka Egbuka, receiver: 240 receiving yards, 28 receptions and 49 targets in 6 games this season, 1% of TB’s carries in those games.
2 games since Emeka Egbuka’s last game is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
carries a game over expected
A −27.2 difference in carries over expected with Emeka Egbuka vs since Emeka Egbuka’s last game is unusual: shuffle which games were with Emeka Egbuka and it comes up 3 times in 100.
A −25.7 difference in carries with Emeka Egbuka vs since Emeka Egbuka’s last game is unusual: shuffle which games were with Emeka Egbuka and it comes up 3 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | @ CIN | L | 20 | 28.9 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | vs CLE | L | 25 | 29.1 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | vs MIN | L | 21 | 28.4 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | vs GB | L | 31 | 28.3 | |
| Oct 8, 2026 | @ DAL | W | 39 | 29.1 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | vs PIT | L | 25 | 27.7 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | @ CAR | W | 49 | 27.3 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | vs ATL | W | 56 | 26.8 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.2 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 21% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.