The Browns' points of margin with Dylan Sampson and without Dylan Sampson
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Browns were 2.6 points under with Dylan Sampson and 0.2 points under without Dylan Sampson over their last 35 games, 18 games against 7. The plain averages are -6.2 and -3.3, a difference of 2.9.
Dylan Sampson, running back: 227 rushing yards, 72 carries and 42 receptions in 18 of those 35 games.
points of margin a game over expected
with Dylan Sampson
−2.6
without Dylan Sampson
−0.2
-20020
A −2.4 difference in points of margin over expected with Dylan Sampson vs without Dylan Sampson is about what you’d expect.
plain
-6.2
-3.3
-20020
A −2.9 difference in points of margin with Dylan Sampson vs without Dylan Sampson is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Dylan Sampsonwithout Dylan Sampson
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27, 2024 | vs BAL | W | 5 | -15.6 | |
| Nov 3, 2024 | vs LAC | L | -17 | -8.0 | |
| Nov 17, 2024 | @ NO | L | -21 | -3.9 | |
| Nov 21, 2024 | vs PIT | W | 5 | -8.5 | |
| Dec 2, 2024 | @ DEN | L | -9 | -13.2 | |
| Dec 8, 2024 | @PIT | L | -13 | -10.0 | |
| Dec 15, 2024 | vs KC | L | -14 | -8.3 | |
| Dec 22, 2024 | @ CIN | L | -18 | -9.2 | |
| Dec 29, 2024 | vs MIA | L | -17 | -2.0 | |
| Jan 4, 2025 | @BAL | L | -25 | -16.0 | |
| Sep 7, 2025 | vsCIN | L | -1 | 0.2 | |
| Sep 14, 2025 | @BAL | L | -24 | -7.0 | |
| Sep 21, 2025 | vs GB | W | 3 | -5.4 | |
| Sep 28, 2025 | @ DET | L | -24 | -9.1 | |
| Oct 5, 2025 | vs MIN (neutral) | L | -4 | -6.4 | |
| Oct 12, 2025 | @PIT | L | -14 | -6.4 | |
| Oct 19, 2025 | vsMIA | W | 25 | -1.8 | |
| Oct 26, 2025 | @ NE | L | -19 | -12.0 | |
| Nov 9, 2025 | @ NYJ | L | -7 | 3.0 | |
| Nov 16, 2025 | vsBAL | L | -7 | -4.6 | |
| Nov 23, 2025 | @ LV | W | 14 | -0.7 | |
| Nov 30, 2025 | vs SF | L | -18 | -6.9 | |
| Dec 7, 2025 | vs TEN | L | -2 | 2.9 | |
| Dec 14, 2025 | @ CHI | L | -28 | -6.2 | |
| Dec 21, 2025 | vs BUF | L | -3 | -8.5 | |
| Dec 28, 2025 | vsPIT | W | 7 | -4.4 | |
| Jan 4, 2026 | @CIN | W | 2 | -4.0 | |
| Sep 13, 2026 | @ JAX | L | -24 | -3.3 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | @ TB | W | 4 | -3.6 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | vs CAR | W | 3 | -1.0 | |
| Oct 1, 2026 | vsPIT | W | 3 | -2.9 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | @NYJ | L | -5 | 0.0 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | vsBAL | W | 3 | 0.4 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | @TEN | W | 3 | 2.1 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | @PIT | L | -21 | -1.3 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 2.3 in 2025, plus 0.4 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 77% in 2025, 28% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.
- 10 games in 2024 are neither with Dylan Sampson nor without Dylan Sampson: Dylan Sampson had no game for the team that season, and sit out.