The Browns' points allowed at home and away
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Browns were 4.1 points under at home and 4.1 points over away over their last 35 games, 16 games against 18. The plain averages are 19.1 and 27.7, a difference of 8.7. Both games after a bye were away. Both games on a short week were at home.
The Browns' −8.2 at home vs away over expected ranks 31st of the 32 teams with 4 games on each side over their last 35 games.
points allowed a game over expected
at home
−4.1
away
+4.1
-10010
A −8.2 difference in points allowed over expected at home vs away is rare: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up less than once in 100.
plain
19.1
27.7
10203040
A −8.7 difference in points allowed at home vs away is rare: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up less than once in 100.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points allowed | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27, 2024 | vs BAL | W | 24 | 29.5 | |
| Nov 3, 2024 | vs LAC | L | 27 | 23.4 | |
| Nov 17, 2024 | @ NO | L | 35 | 21.3 | |
| Nov 21, 2024 | vs PIT | W | 19 | 23.2 | |
| Dec 2, 2024 | @ DEN | L | 41 | 24.3 | |
| Dec 8, 2024 | @PIT | L | 27 | 24.0 | |
| Dec 15, 2024 | vs KC | L | 21 | 24.3 | |
| Dec 22, 2024 | @ CIN | L | 24 | 28.9 | |
| Dec 29, 2024 | vs MIA | L | 20 | 21.4 | |
| Jan 4, 2025 | @BAL | L | 35 | 30.1 | |
| Sep 7, 2025 | vsCIN | L | 17 | 23.2 | |
| Sep 14, 2025 | @BAL | L | 41 | 23.2 | |
| Sep 21, 2025 | vs GB | W | 10 | 22.4 | |
| Sep 28, 2025 | @ DET | L | 34 | 26.4 | |
| Oct 5, 2025 | vs MIN (neutral) | L | 21 | 19.9 | |
| Oct 12, 2025 | @PIT | L | 23 | 22.9 | |
| Oct 19, 2025 | vsMIA | W | 6 | 20.4 | |
| Oct 26, 2025 | @ NE | L | 32 | 24.7 | |
| Nov 9, 2025 | @ NYJ | L | 27 | 18.5 | |
| Nov 16, 2025 | vsBAL | L | 23 | 23.0 | |
| Nov 23, 2025 | @ LV | W | 10 | 18.4 | |
| Nov 30, 2025 | vs SF | L | 26 | 23.8 | |
| Dec 7, 2025 | vs TEN | L | 31 | 17.7 | |
| Dec 14, 2025 | @ CHI | L | 31 | 24.6 | |
| Dec 21, 2025 | vs BUF | L | 23 | 26.0 | |
| Dec 28, 2025 | vsPIT | W | 6 | 22.5 | |
| Jan 4, 2026 | @CIN | W | 18 | 24.8 | |
| Sep 13, 2026 | @ JAX | L | 34 | 23.5 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | @ TB | W | 19 | 23.2 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | vs CAR | W | 18 | 24.3 | |
| Oct 1, 2026 | vsPIT | W | 24 | 22.5 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | @NYJ | L | 17 | 22.7 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | vsBAL | W | 10 | 22.6 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | @TEN | W | 24 | 20.8 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | @PIT | L | 27 | 22.4 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 0.9 in 2024, minus 1.1 in 2025, minus 0.2 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 68% in 2024, 69% in 2025, 23% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.