The Browns' carries with Quinshon Judkins and without Quinshon Judkins
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Browns were 1.4 carries under with Quinshon Judkins and 0.8 carries under without Quinshon Judkins over their last 35 games, 21 games against 4. The plain averages are 24.6 and 25.5, a difference of 0.9. All 16 games outside the division were with Quinshon Judkins.
Quinshon Judkins, running back: 1,169 rushing yards, 331 carries and 47 receptions in 21 of those 35 games, 64% of CLE’s carries in those games.
carries a game over expected
with Quinshon Judkins
−1.4
without Quinshon Judkins
−0.8
-10-505
A −0.5 difference in carries over expected with Quinshon Judkins vs without Quinshon Judkins is about what you’d expect.
plain
24.6
25.5
15202530
A −0.9 difference in carries with Quinshon Judkins vs without Quinshon Judkins is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Quinshon Judkinswithout Quinshon Judkins
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27, 2024 | vs BAL | W | 23 | 21.1 | |
| Nov 3, 2024 | vs LAC | L | 24 | 24.2 | |
| Nov 17, 2024 | @ NO | L | 20 | 26.2 | |
| Nov 21, 2024 | vs PIT | W | 27 | 23.0 | |
| Dec 2, 2024 | @ DEN | L | 23 | 24.8 | |
| Dec 8, 2024 | @PIT | L | 25 | 23.2 | |
| Dec 15, 2024 | vs KC | L | 21 | 24.2 | |
| Dec 22, 2024 | @ CIN | L | 24 | 25.0 | |
| Dec 29, 2024 | vs MIA | L | 28 | 22.9 | |
| Jan 4, 2025 | @BAL | L | 19 | 21.5 | |
| Sep 7, 2025 | vsCIN | L | 24 | 26.7 | |
| Sep 14, 2025 | @BAL | L | 22 | 25.2 | |
| Sep 21, 2025 | vs GB | W | 19 | 27.1 | |
| Sep 28, 2025 | @ DET | L | 27 | 24.9 | |
| Oct 5, 2025 | vs MIN (neutral) | L | 32 | 27.3 | |
| Oct 12, 2025 | @PIT | L | 17 | 25.7 | |
| Oct 19, 2025 | vsMIA | W | 33 | 25.2 | |
| Oct 26, 2025 | @ NE | L | 16 | 24.4 | |
| Nov 9, 2025 | @ NYJ | L | 32 | 27.3 | |
| Nov 16, 2025 | vsBAL | L | 25 | 25.5 | |
| Nov 23, 2025 | @ LV | W | 27 | 26.8 | |
| Nov 30, 2025 | vs SF | L | 31 | 24.5 | |
| Dec 7, 2025 | vs TEN | L | 20 | 25.8 | |
| Dec 14, 2025 | @ CHI | L | 16 | 26.2 | |
| Dec 21, 2025 | vs BUF | L | 31 | 24.9 | |
| Dec 28, 2025 | vsPIT | W | 25 | 25.7 | |
| Jan 4, 2026 | @CIN | W | 24 | 26.3 | |
| Sep 13, 2026 | @ JAX | L | 22 | 26.1 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | @ TB | W | 23 | 25.8 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | vs CAR | W | 30 | 26.4 | |
| Oct 1, 2026 | vsPIT | W | 27 | 25.2 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | @NYJ | L | 23 | 27.8 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | vsBAL | W | 29 | 26.7 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | @TEN | W | 29 | 27.5 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | @PIT | L | 15 | 25.9 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.4 in 2025, plus 0.2 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 48% in 2025, 21% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.
- 10 games in 2024 are neither with Quinshon Judkins nor without Quinshon Judkins: Quinshon Judkins had no game for the team that season, and sit out.