The Broncos' points of margin with Jonah Coleman and without Jonah Coleman
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Broncos were 1.3 points over with Jonah Coleman and 0.1 points over without Jonah Coleman in 2026, 4 games against 4. The plain averages are 1.0 and 0.8, a difference of 0.3. Expected was 1.0 points lower with Jonah Coleman than without Jonah Coleman.
Jonah Coleman, running back: 134 rushing yards, 30 carries and 9 receptions in 4 games this season.
points of margin a game over expected
with Jonah Coleman
+1.3
without Jonah Coleman
+0.1
-20-10010
A +1.2 difference in points of margin over expected with Jonah Coleman vs without Jonah Coleman is about what you’d expect.
plain
1.0
0.8
-20-10010
A +0.3 difference in points of margin with Jonah Coleman vs without Jonah Coleman is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Jonah Colemanwithout Jonah Coleman
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 14, 2026 | @ KC | L | -21 | 1.4 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | vs JAX | W | 7 | -4.4 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | vs LA | W | 4 | 0.2 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | @ SF | L | -10 | -0.8 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | @ LAC | W | 6 | 3.8 | |
| Oct 15, 2026 | vs SEA | W | 3 | -0.5 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | @ ARI | W | 14 | 2.2 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | vsKC | W | 4 | -0.4 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.4 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 28% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.