The Broncos' points allowed with Jonah Coleman and without Jonah Coleman
, ,
Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Broncos were 1.9 points under with Jonah Coleman and 1.9 points under without Jonah Coleman over their last 35 games, 4 games against 4. The plain averages are 21.0 and 20.3, a difference of 0.8.
Jonah Coleman, running back: 134 rushing yards, 30 carries and 9 receptions in 4 of those 35 games.
points allowed a game over expected
with Jonah Coleman
−1.9
without Jonah Coleman
−1.9
-100
A +0.0 difference in points allowed over expected with Jonah Coleman vs without Jonah Coleman is about what you’d expect.
plain
21.0
20.3
15202530
A +0.8 difference in points allowed with Jonah Coleman vs without Jonah Coleman is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Jonah Colemanwithout Jonah Coleman
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points allowed | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 17, 2024 | vs ATL | W | 6 | 20.5 | |
| Nov 24, 2024 | @ LV | W | 19 | 17.8 | |
| Dec 2, 2024 | vs CLE | W | 32 | 12.8 | |
| Dec 15, 2024 | vs IND | W | 13 | 19.7 | |
| Dec 19, 2024 | @ LAC | L | 34 | 19.6 | |
| Dec 28, 2024 | @ CIN | L | 30 | 23.7 | |
| Jan 5, 2025 | vs KC | W | 0 | 21.3 | |
| Jan 12, 2025 | @ BUF | L | 31 | 25.9 | |
| Sep 7, 2025 | vs TEN | W | 12 | 17.1 | |
| Sep 14, 2025 | @IND | L | 29 | 25.1 | |
| Sep 21, 2025 | @LAC | L | 23 | 19.6 | |
| Sep 29, 2025 | vsCIN | W | 3 | 22.0 | |
| Oct 5, 2025 | @ PHI | W | 17 | 20.1 | |
| Oct 12, 2025 | vs NYJ (neutral) | W | 11 | 16.7 | |
| Oct 19, 2025 | vs NYG | W | 32 | 18.0 | |
| Oct 26, 2025 | vs DAL | W | 24 | 22.7 | |
| Nov 2, 2025 | @ HOU | W | 15 | 22.9 | |
| Nov 6, 2025 | vsLV | W | 7 | 14.5 | |
| Nov 16, 2025 | vsKC | W | 19 | 18.1 | |
| Nov 30, 2025 | @ WAS | W | 26 | 19.1 | |
| Dec 7, 2025 | @LV | W | 17 | 15.4 | |
| Dec 14, 2025 | vs GB | W | 26 | 18.6 | |
| Dec 21, 2025 | vs JAX | L | 34 | 22.2 | |
| Dec 25, 2025 | @KC | W | 13 | 20.4 | |
| Jan 4, 2026 | vsLAC | W | 3 | 19.5 | |
| Jan 17, 2026 | vsBUF | W | 30 | 23.1 | |
| Jan 25, 2026 | vs NE | L | 10 | 22.4 | |
| Sep 14, 2026 | @KC | L | 31 | 21.9 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | vsJAX | W | 13 | 24.8 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | vs LA | W | 26 | 21.9 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | @ SF | L | 24 | 23.7 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | @LAC | W | 17 | 19.9 | |
| Oct 15, 2026 | vs SEA | W | 14 | 23.2 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | @ ARI | W | 16 | 22.7 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | vsKC | W | 24 | 22.2 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 0.2 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 23% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.
- 27 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Jonah Coleman nor without Jonah Coleman: Jonah Coleman had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.