The Bills' points of margin with DJ Moore and without DJ Moore
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Bills were 7.1 points over with DJ Moore and 0.8 points over without DJ Moore over their last 35 games, 5 games against 2. The plain averages are 9.2 and 3.0, a difference of 6.2. All 4 home games were with DJ Moore.
DJ Moore, receiver: 260 receiving yards, 16 receptions and 27 targets in 5 of those 35 games.
2 games without DJ Moore is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
with DJ Moore
+7.1
without DJ Moore
+0.8
01020
A +6.3 difference in points of margin over expected with DJ Moore vs without DJ Moore is about what you’d expect.
plain
9.2
3.0
01020
A +6.2 difference in points of margin with DJ Moore vs without DJ Moore is about what you’d expect.
The games
with DJ Moorewithout DJ Moore
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 1, 2024 | vs SF | W | 25 | 8.0 | |
| Dec 8, 2024 | @ LA | L | -2 | 5.1 | |
| Dec 15, 2024 | @ DET | W | 6 | -5.1 | |
| Dec 22, 2024 | vs NE | W | 3 | 16.1 | |
| Dec 29, 2024 | vs NYJ | W | 26 | 10.8 | |
| Jan 5, 2025 | @NE | L | -7 | 13.8 | |
| Jan 12, 2025 | vs DEN | W | 24 | 2.7 | |
| Jan 19, 2025 | vs BAL | W | 2 | 0.4 | |
| Jan 26, 2025 | @ KC | L | -3 | 3.1 | |
| Sep 7, 2025 | vsBAL | W | 1 | 5.3 | |
| Sep 14, 2025 | @NYJ | W | 20 | 11.1 | |
| Sep 18, 2025 | vs MIA | W | 10 | 10.6 | |
| Sep 28, 2025 | vs NO | W | 12 | 9.2 | |
| Oct 5, 2025 | vsNE | L | -3 | 1.1 | |
| Oct 13, 2025 | @ ATL | L | -10 | 5.7 | |
| Oct 26, 2025 | @ CAR | W | 31 | 1.9 | |
| Nov 2, 2025 | vsKC | W | 7 | 4.2 | |
| Nov 9, 2025 | @MIA | L | -17 | 9.1 | |
| Nov 16, 2025 | vs TB | W | 12 | 5.9 | |
| Nov 20, 2025 | @ HOU | L | -4 | -4.8 | |
| Nov 30, 2025 | @ PIT | W | 19 | 1.1 | |
| Dec 7, 2025 | vs CIN | W | 5 | 10.4 | |
| Dec 14, 2025 | @NE | W | 4 | -3.3 | |
| Dec 21, 2025 | @ CLE | W | 3 | 8.5 | |
| Dec 28, 2025 | vs PHI | L | -1 | 4.4 | |
| Jan 4, 2026 | vsNYJ | W | 27 | 14.4 | |
| Jan 11, 2026 | @ JAX | W | 3 | -5.2 | |
| Jan 17, 2026 | @DEN | L | -3 | -0.1 | |
| Sep 13, 2026 | @HOU | W | 5 | 2.0 | |
| Sep 17, 2026 | vsDET | W | 10 | 0.2 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | vs LAC | W | 8 | 5.7 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | vsNE | L | -3 | 0.7 | |
| Oct 12, 2026 | @LA | W | 3 | 1.6 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | @ LV | W | 3 | 2.7 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | vsBAL | W | 26 | 1.6 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.4 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 28% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.
- 28 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with DJ Moore nor without DJ Moore: DJ Moore had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.