The Bills' points allowed with DJ Moore and without DJ Moore
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Bills were 0.1 points under with DJ Moore and 7.9 points over without DJ Moore in 2026, 5 games against 2. The plain averages are 23.4 and 32.0, a difference of 8.6. All 4 home games were with DJ Moore. All 3 first-half games were with DJ Moore.
DJ Moore, receiver: 260 receiving yards, 16 receptions and 27 targets in 5 games this season.
2 games without DJ Moore is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points allowed a game over expected
with DJ Moore
−0.1
without DJ Moore
+7.9
-10010
A −8.0 difference in points allowed over expected with DJ Moore vs without DJ Moore is about what you’d expect.
plain
23.4
32.0
102030
A −8.6 difference in points allowed with DJ Moore vs without DJ Moore is about what you’d expect.
The games
with DJ Moorewithout DJ Moore
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points allowed | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | @ HOU | W | 31 | 23.0 | |
| Sep 17, 2026 | vs DET | W | 31 | 25.1 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | vs LAC | W | 16 | 21.6 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | vs NE | L | 29 | 23.8 | |
| Oct 12, 2026 | @ LA | W | 34 | 23.1 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | @ LV | W | 30 | 25.1 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | vs BAL | W | 10 | 24.1 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 0.2 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 23% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.