The Bengals' turnovers with Joe Flacco and without Joe Flacco
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Bengals were 0.2 turnovers under with Joe Flacco and 0.3 turnovers over without Joe Flacco over their last 35 games, 6 games against 18. The plain averages are 1.0 and 1.6, a difference of 0.6.
Joe Flacco, quarterback: 1,664 passing yards, 256 pass attempts and 158 completions in 9 of those 35 games.
turnovers a game over expected
with Joe Flacco
−0.2
without Joe Flacco
+0.3
02
A −0.5 difference in turnovers over expected with Joe Flacco vs without Joe Flacco is about what you’d expect.
plain
1.0
1.6
024
A −0.6 difference in turnovers with Joe Flacco vs without Joe Flacco is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Joe Flaccowithout Joe Flacco
| Side | Date | Game | Result | turnovers | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20, 2024 | @ CLE | W | 0 | 1.2 | |
| Oct 27, 2024 | vs PHI | L | 2 | 1.6 | |
| Nov 3, 2024 | vs LV | W | 1 | 1.1 | |
| Nov 7, 2024 | @ BAL | L | 1 | 1.2 | |
| Nov 17, 2024 | @ LAC | L | 0 | 1.4 | |
| Dec 1, 2024 | vs PIT | L | 3 | 1.5 | |
| Dec 9, 2024 | @ DAL | W | 1 | 1.4 | |
| Dec 15, 2024 | @ TEN | W | 4 | 1.1 | |
| Dec 22, 2024 | vsCLE | W | 1 | 1.1 | |
| Dec 28, 2024 | vs DEN | W | 1 | 1.4 | |
| Jan 4, 2025 | @PIT | W | 2 | 1.5 | |
| Sep 7, 2025 | @CLE | W | 0 | 1.2 | |
| Sep 14, 2025 | vs JAX | W | 3 | 1.3 | |
| Sep 21, 2025 | @ MIN | L | 5 | 1.2 | |
| Sep 29, 2025 | @DEN | L | 0 | 1.2 | |
| Oct 5, 2025 | vs DET | L | 3 | 1.2 | |
| Oct 12, 2025 | @ GB | L | 0 | 1.2 | |
| Oct 16, 2025 | vsPIT | W | 0 | 1.3 | |
| Oct 26, 2025 | vs NYJ | L | 0 | 1.1 | |
| Nov 2, 2025 | vs CHI | L | 3 | 1.3 | |
| Nov 16, 2025 | @PIT | L | 2 | 1.3 | |
| Nov 23, 2025 | vs NE | L | 1 | 1.2 | |
| Nov 27, 2025 | @BAL | W | 1 | 1.2 | |
| Dec 7, 2025 | @ BUF | L | 2 | 1.2 | |
| Dec 14, 2025 | vsBAL | L | 2 | 1.2 | |
| Dec 21, 2025 | @ MIA | W | 0 | 1.2 | |
| Dec 28, 2025 | vs ARI | W | 0 | 1.2 | |
| Jan 4, 2026 | vsCLE | L | 2 | 1.2 | |
| Sep 13, 2026 | vs TB | W | 1 | 1.3 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | @ HOU | W | 0 | 1.3 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | @PIT | L | 2 | 1.3 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | vsJAX | L | 2 | 1.3 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | @MIA | W | 1 | 1.3 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | @BAL | W | 0 | 1.3 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | vsTEN | W | 4 | 1.2 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.0 in 2025, plus 0.0 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 15% in 2025, 2% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 11 games in 2024 are neither with Joe Flacco nor without Joe Flacco: Joe Flacco had no game for the team that season, and sit out.