The Bengals' points with B.J. Hill and without B.J. Hill
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Bengals were 10.9 points over with B.J. Hill and 3.1 points under without B.J. Hill in 2026, 4 games against 3. The plain averages are 35.5 and 21.3, a difference of 14.2.
B.J. Hill, defensive lineman: 4 games this season.
3 games without B.J. Hill is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points a game over expected
with B.J. Hill
+10.9
without B.J. Hill
−3.1
010
A +14.0 difference in points over expected with B.J. Hill vs without B.J. Hill is unusual: shuffle which games were with B.J. Hill and it comes up 3 times in 100.
plain
35.5
21.3
203040
A +14.2 difference in points with B.J. Hill vs without B.J. Hill is unusual: shuffle which games were with B.J. Hill and it comes up 3 times in 100.
The games
with B.J. Hillwithout B.J. Hill
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | vs TB | W | 33 | 23.3 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | @ HOU | W | 20 | 25.5 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | @ PIT | L | 27 | 23.6 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | vs JAX | L | 17 | 24.2 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | @ MIA | W | 31 | 25.2 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | @ BAL | W | 35 | 24.8 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | vs TEN | W | 43 | 25.1 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.2 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 23% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.