The Bengals' points allowed with B.J. Hill and without B.J. Hill
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Bengals were 1.7 points over with B.J. Hill and 4.7 points under without B.J. Hill over their last 35 games, 32 games against 3. The plain averages are 27.3 and 19.3, a difference of 8.0. All 3 games after a bye were with B.J. Hill. All 3 games on a short week were with B.J. Hill.
B.J. Hill, defensive lineman: 7 sacks in 32 of those 35 games.
3 games without B.J. Hill is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points allowed a game over expected
with B.J. Hill
+1.7
without B.J. Hill
−4.7
020
A +6.5 difference in points allowed over expected with B.J. Hill vs without B.J. Hill is about what you’d expect.
plain
27.3
19.3
2040
A +8.0 difference in points allowed with B.J. Hill vs without B.J. Hill is about what you’d expect.
The games
with B.J. Hillwithout B.J. Hill
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points allowed | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20, 2024 | @ CLE | W | 14 | 21.6 | |
| Oct 27, 2024 | vs PHI | L | 37 | 27.8 | |
| Nov 3, 2024 | vs LV | W | 24 | 21.7 | |
| Nov 7, 2024 | @ BAL | L | 35 | 31.2 | |
| Nov 17, 2024 | @ LAC | L | 34 | 25.3 | |
| Dec 1, 2024 | vs PIT | L | 44 | 22.3 | |
| Dec 9, 2024 | @ DAL | W | 20 | 24.7 | |
| Dec 15, 2024 | @ TEN | W | 27 | 22.3 | |
| Dec 22, 2024 | vsCLE | W | 6 | 20.9 | |
| Dec 28, 2024 | vs DEN | W | 24 | 25.6 | |
| Jan 4, 2025 | @PIT | W | 17 | 26.0 | |
| Sep 7, 2025 | @CLE | W | 16 | 23.4 | |
| Sep 14, 2025 | vs JAX | W | 27 | 30.8 | |
| Sep 21, 2025 | @ MIN | L | 48 | 23.8 | |
| Sep 29, 2025 | @DEN | L | 28 | 28.1 | |
| Oct 5, 2025 | vs DET | L | 37 | 29.9 | |
| Oct 12, 2025 | @ GB | L | 27 | 28.2 | |
| Oct 16, 2025 | vsPIT | W | 31 | 25.9 | |
| Oct 26, 2025 | vs NYJ | L | 39 | 21.1 | |
| Nov 2, 2025 | vs CHI | L | 47 | 26.9 | |
| Nov 16, 2025 | @PIT | L | 34 | 27.4 | |
| Nov 23, 2025 | vs NE | L | 26 | 29.0 | |
| Nov 27, 2025 | @BAL | W | 14 | 31.1 | |
| Dec 7, 2025 | @ BUF | L | 39 | 31.9 | |
| Dec 14, 2025 | vsBAL | L | 24 | 28.5 | |
| Dec 21, 2025 | @ MIA | W | 21 | 26.4 | |
| Dec 28, 2025 | vs ARI | W | 14 | 27.2 | |
| Jan 4, 2026 | vsCLE | L | 20 | 21.2 | |
| Sep 13, 2026 | vs TB | W | 27 | 23.1 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | @ HOU | W | 6 | 24.5 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | @PIT | L | 30 | 22.7 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | vsJAX | L | 22 | 25.0 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | @MIA | W | 24 | 21.9 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | @BAL | W | 13 | 23.2 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | vsTEN | W | 36 | 20.3 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 0.9 in 2024, minus 1.1 in 2025, minus 0.2 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 68% in 2024, 69% in 2025, 23% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.