Tyler Bass’ field goals at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed kickers, Tyler Bass was 0.0 field goals under at home and 1.6 field goals over away in 2026, 4 games against 3. The plain averages are 1.5 and 3.3, a difference of 1.8.
3 games away is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
field goals a game over expected
at home
−0.0
away
+1.6
012
A −1.6 difference in field goals over expected at home vs away is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up 12 times in 100.
plain
1.5
3.3
01234
A −1.8 difference in field goals at home vs away is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up 12 times in 100.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | field goals | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | @ HOU | W | 3 | 1.6 | |
| Sep 17, 2026 | vs DET | W | 0 | 0.7 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | vs LAC | W | 1 | 2.0 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | vs NE | L | 2 | 1.7 | |
| Oct 12, 2026 | @ LA | W | 3 | 2.4 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | @ LV | W | 4 | 1.1 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | vs BAL | W | 3 | 1.7 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed kickers in its other 2026 games, minus 0.1 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for kickers that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s kickers’ field goals in his games, 100%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 93% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.