Terry McLaurin’s receiving yards at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed receivers, Terry McLaurin was 36.3 yards over at home and 17.7 yards under away in 2026, 2 games against 3. The plain averages are 69.5 and 30.3, a difference of 39.2.
2 games at home is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
receiving yards a game over expected
at home
+36.3
away
−17.7
0
A +54.0 difference in receiving yards over expected at home vs away is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up 9 times in 100.
plain
69.5
30.3
204060
A +39.2 difference in receiving yards at home vs away is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up 19 times in 100.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | receiving yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | @ PHI | L | 14 | 57.4 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | @ DAL | L | 50 | 50.7 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | vs SEA | W | 77 | 27.8 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | vs NYG | T | 62 | 38.7 | |
| Oct 19, 2026 | @ SF | L | 27 | 36.2 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed receivers in its other 2026 games, minus 0.2 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for receivers that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s receivers’ receiving yards in his games, 31%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 99% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.