Stefon Diggs’ receiving yards at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed receivers, Stefon Diggs was 0.1 yards over at home and 7.9 yards over away in 2026, 2 games against 3. The plain averages are 35.5 and 48.7, a difference of 13.2.
2 games at home is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
receiving yards a game over expected
at home
+0.1
away
+7.9
010
A −7.8 difference in receiving yards over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
35.5
48.7
4050
A −13.2 difference in receiving yards at home vs away is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up 12 times in 100.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | receiving yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | @ PHI | L | 55 | 48.6 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | @ DAL | L | 47 | 43.0 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | vs SEA | W | 33 | 23.6 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | vs IND (neutral) | L | 35 | 32.1 | |
| Oct 19, 2026 | @ SF | L | 44 | 30.7 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | vsPHI | W | 38 | 47.2 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed receivers in its other 2026 games, minus 0.2 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for receivers that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s receivers’ receiving yards in his games, 26%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 99% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.