Riley Patterson’s field goals at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed kickers, Riley Patterson was 1.1 field goals under at home and 0.1 field goals under away in 2026, 2 games against 3. The plain averages are 1.0 and 1.7, a difference of 0.7.
2 games at home is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
field goals a game over expected
at home
−1.1
away
−0.1
-1-0.500.5
A −1.0 difference in field goals over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
1.0
1.7
11.52
A −0.7 difference in field goals at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | field goals | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | @ LV | L | 2 | 1.4 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | @ SF | L | 2 | 2.2 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | vs KC | L | 1 | 2.1 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | @ MIN | L | 1 | 1.6 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | vs CIN | L | 1 | 2.1 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed kickers in its other 2026 games, minus 0.1 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for kickers that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s kickers’ field goals in his games, 100%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 93% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.