Nick Folk’s field goals at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed kickers, Nick Folk was 0.2 field goals over at home and 0.6 field goals under away in 2026, 4 games against 4. The plain averages are 1.8 and 1.3, a difference of 0.5.
field goals a game over expected
at home
+0.2
away
−0.6
-2-101
A +0.9 difference in field goals over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
1.8
1.3
0123
A +0.5 difference in field goals at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | field goals | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | @ PIT | L | 2 | 2.4 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | vs CAR | L | 1 | 1.3 | |
| Sep 24, 2026 | @ GB | W | 2 | 0.9 | |
| Oct 5, 2026 | @ NO | W | 1 | 2.1 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | vs BAL | L | 3 | 1.7 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | vs CHI | L | 0 | 1.1 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | vs SF | W | 3 | 2.0 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | @ TB | L | 0 | 2.2 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed kickers in its other 2026 games, minus 0.1 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for kickers that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s kickers’ field goals in his games, 100%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 93% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.