Josh Allen’s passing yards at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed quarterbacks, Josh Allen was 6.0 yards over at home and 39.4 yards over away in 2026, 4 games against 3. The plain averages are 248.5 and 266.3, a difference of 17.8.
3 games away is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
passing yards a game over expected
at home
+6.0
away
+39.4
-50050
A −33.4 difference in passing yards over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
248.5
266.3
250300
A −17.8 difference in passing yards at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | passing yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | @ HOU | W | 334 | 244.4 | |
| Sep 17, 2026 | vs DET | W | 248 | 301.7 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | vs LAC | W | 204 | 205.9 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | vs NE | L | 253 | 230.1 | |
| Oct 12, 2026 | @ LA | W | 210 | 192.5 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | @ LV | W | 255 | 243.8 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | vs BAL | W | 289 | 232.2 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed quarterbacks in its other 2026 games, plus 1.6 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for quarterbacks that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s quarterbacks’ passing yards in his games, 100%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 98% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.