Jayden Daniels’ passing yards at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed quarterbacks, Jayden Daniels was 13.3 yards over at home and 22.1 yards under away in 2026, 2 games against 3. The plain averages are 208.0 and 186.7, a difference of 21.3. Both first-half games were away.
2 games at home is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
passing yards a game over expected
at home
+13.3
away
−22.1
-1000100
A +35.4 difference in passing yards over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
208.0
186.7
100200300
A +21.3 difference in passing yards at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | passing yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | @ PHI | L | 164 | 223.5 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | @ DAL | L | 96 | 218.2 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | vs NYG | T | 199 | 169.6 | |
| Oct 19, 2026 | @ SF | L | 300 | 184.5 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | vsPHI | W | 217 | 219.7 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed quarterbacks in its other 2026 games, plus 1.6 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for quarterbacks that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s quarterbacks’ passing yards in his games, 90%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 98% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.