Dalton Kincaid’s receiving yards at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed tight ends, Dalton Kincaid was 2.7 yards over at home and 21.2 yards over away in 2026, 4 games against 3. The plain averages are 56.5 and 58.3, a difference of 1.8. Expected was 16.7 yards higher at home than away.
3 games away is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
receiving yards a game over expected
at home
+2.7
away
+21.2
050100
A −18.5 difference in receiving yards over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
56.5
58.3
50100
A −1.8 difference in receiving yards at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | receiving yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | @ HOU | W | 130 | 24.1 | |
| Sep 17, 2026 | vs DET | W | 95 | 83.7 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | vs LAC | W | 38 | 47.2 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | vs NE | L | 7 | 49.8 | |
| Oct 12, 2026 | @ LA | W | 7 | 40.3 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | @ LV | W | 38 | 47.1 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | vs BAL | W | 86 | 34.6 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed tight ends in its other 2026 games, plus 2.2 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for tight ends that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s tight ends’ receiving yards in his games, 89%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 94% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.