Putting Up Numbers· NBA

The Thunder's points of margin on a back-to-back and with a day off or more

, ,

Through the Thunder's game on May 30, 2026.

Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Thunder were 8.2 points under on a back-to-back and 2.9 points over with a day off or more over their last 165 games, 23 games against 103. The plain averages are 0.7 and 14.6, a difference of 13.9.

The Thunder's −11.1 on a back-to-back vs with a day off or more over expected ranks 30th of the 30 teams with 10 games on each side over their last 165 games through May 30, 2026.

points of margin a game over expected

A −11.1 difference in points of margin over expected on a back-to-back vs with a day off or more is rare: shuffle which games were on a back-to-back and it comes up less than once in 100.

A −13.9 difference in points of margin on a back-to-back vs with a day off or more is rare: shuffle which games were on a back-to-back and it comes up less than once in 100.

The games

on a back-to-backwith a day off or more
Oklahoma City Thunder’s games, last 165 games, each marked on a back-to-back or with a day off or more
SideDateGameResultpoints of marginExpected
Jan 12, 2025@WASW4121.0
Jan 14, 2025@PHIW1615.9
Jan 16, 2025vsCLEW204.5
Jan 17, 2025@DALL-811.1
Jan 19, 2025vsBKNW2619.8
Jan 22, 2025vsUTAW921.7
Jan 23, 2025vsDALL-614.6
Jan 26, 2025@PORW1012.6
Jan 29, 2025@GSWL-77.1
Feb 1, 2025vsSACW3412.5
Feb 3, 2025vsMILW2911.5
Feb 5, 2025vsPHXW3115.6
Feb 7, 2025vsTORW1217.7
Feb 8, 2025@MEMW135.9
Feb 10, 2025vsNOPW3621.2
Feb 12, 2025vsMIAW1414.3
Feb 13, 2025@MINL-155.1
Feb 21, 2025@UTAW2317.9
Feb 23, 2025@MINW74.7
Feb 24, 2025vsMINL-38.4
Feb 26, 2025@BKNW816.7
Feb 28, 2025@ATLW1611.2
Mar 2, 2025@SASW1412.3
Mar 3, 2025vsHOUW99.0
Mar 5, 2025@MEMW175.8
Mar 7, 2025vsPORW1815.9
Mar 9, 2025vsDENW249.5
Mar 10, 2025vsDENL-1310.2
Mar 12, 2025@BOSW62.4
Mar 15, 2025@DETW68.4
Mar 16, 2025@MILW168.2
Mar 19, 2025vsPHIW3319.1
Mar 21, 2025vsCHAW3521.7
Mar 23, 2025@LACW25.6
Mar 25, 2025@SACW169.4
Mar 27, 2025vsMEMW219.3
Mar 29, 2025vsINDW2110.2
Mar 31, 2025vsCHIW2814.9
Apr 2, 2025vsDETW1611.7
Apr 4, 2025@HOUL-145.9
Apr 6, 2025vsLALL-2713.1
Apr 8, 2025vsLALW1612.2
Apr 9, 2025@PHXW1312.4
Apr 11, 2025@UTAW3417.7
Apr 13, 2025@NOPW1518.1
Apr 20, 2025vsMEMW518.7
Apr 22, 2025vsMEMW199.3
Apr 24, 2025@MEMW66.1
Apr 26, 2025@MEMW26.1
May 5, 2025vsDENL-210.0
May 7, 2025vsDENW439.2
May 9, 2025@DENL-96.6
May 11, 2025@DENW56.4
May 13, 2025vsDENW79.8
May 15, 2025@DENL-126.7
May 18, 2025vsDENW329.4
May 20, 2025vsMINW267.9
May 22, 2025vsMINW158.1
May 24, 2025@MINL-425.6
May 26, 2025@MINW24.8
May 28, 2025vsMINW307.8
Jun 5, 2025vsINDL-110.6
Jun 8, 2025vsINDW1610.3
Jun 11, 2025@INDL-97.2
Jun 13, 2025@INDW76.9
Jun 16, 2025vsINDW1110.4
Jun 19, 2025@INDL-177.4
Jun 22, 2025vsINDW1210.3
Oct 21, 2025vsHOUW18.0
Oct 23, 2025@INDW616.3
Oct 25, 2025@ATLW177.2
Oct 27, 2025@DALW714.0
Oct 28, 2025vsSACW621.4
Oct 30, 2025vsWASW1923.1
Nov 2, 2025vsNOPW3115.8
Nov 4, 2025@LACW197.7
Nov 5, 2025@PORL-29.5
Nov 7, 2025@SACW3117.6
Nov 9, 2025@MEMW1414.3
Nov 11, 2025vsGSWW2412.2
Nov 12, 2025vsLALW2910.1
Nov 15, 2025@CHAW134.5
Nov 17, 2025@NOPW1712.8
Nov 19, 2025vsSACW1421.3
Nov 21, 2025@UTAW3216.1
Nov 23, 2025vsPORW2712.2
Nov 26, 2025vsMINW89.5
Nov 28, 2025vsPHXW410.9
Nov 30, 2025@PORW89.3
Dec 2, 2025@GSWW129.1
Dec 5, 2025vsDALW2117.0
Dec 7, 2025@UTAW3016.1
Dec 10, 2025vsPHXW4910.0
Dec 13, 2025vsSASL-23.4
Dec 18, 2025vsLACW2111.0
Dec 19, 2025@MINL-56.4
Dec 22, 2025vsMEMW1617.6
Dec 23, 2025@SASL-200.5
Dec 25, 2025vsSASL-153.7
Dec 28, 2025vsPHIW2512.3
Dec 29, 2025vsATLW1110.6
Dec 31, 2025vsPORW2912.2
Jan 2, 2026@GSWW378.6
Jan 4, 2026@PHXL-37.8
Jan 5, 2026vsCHAL-278.7
Jan 7, 2026vsUTAW420.0
Jan 9, 2026@MEMW114.6
Jan 11, 2026vsMIAW129.8
Jan 13, 2026vsSASW213.0
Jan 15, 2026@HOUW204.3
Jan 17, 2026@MIAL-26.8
Jan 19, 2026@CLEW325.0
Jan 21, 2026@MILW2014.7
Jan 23, 2026vsINDL-319.9
Jan 25, 2026vsTORL-29.9
Jan 27, 2026vsNOPW916.3
Jan 29, 2026@MINL-126.6
Feb 1, 2026@DENW104.5
Feb 3, 2026vsORLW3610.8
Feb 4, 2026@SASL-100.3
Feb 7, 2026vsHOUL-68.2
Feb 9, 2026@LALW97.2
Feb 11, 2026@PHXW277.1
Feb 12, 2026vsMILL-1718.8
Feb 20, 2026vsBKNW1920.7
Feb 22, 2026vsCLEW88.8
Feb 24, 2026@TORW96.3
Feb 25, 2026@DETL-82.5
Feb 27, 2026vsDENW67.9
Mar 1, 2026@DALW1313.9
Mar 3, 2026@CHIW813.7
Mar 4, 2026@NYKW31.0
Mar 7, 2026vsGSWW712.6
Mar 9, 2026vsDENW38.0
Mar 12, 2026vsBOSW25.6
Mar 15, 2026vsMINW139.4
Mar 17, 2026@ORLW58.1
Mar 18, 2026@BKNW2917.2
Mar 21, 2026@WASW2119.8
Mar 23, 2026@PHIW209.1
Mar 25, 2026@BOSL-102.6
Mar 27, 2026vsCHIW1816.8
Mar 29, 2026vsNYKW114.1
Mar 30, 2026vsDETW45.6
Apr 2, 2026vsLALW439.8
Apr 5, 2026vsUTAW3519.3
Apr 7, 2026@LALW366.6
Apr 8, 2026@LACW187.8
Apr 10, 2026@DENL-205.1
Apr 12, 2026vsPHXL-3211.7
Apr 19, 2026vsPHXW3510.3
Apr 22, 2026vsPHXW1310.7
Apr 25, 2026@PHXW127.5
Apr 27, 2026@PHXW97.5
May 5, 2026vsLALW1810.3
May 7, 2026vsLALW1810.3
May 9, 2026@LALW236.9
May 11, 2026@LALW57.3
May 18, 2026vsSASL-73.5
May 20, 2026vsSASW93.2
May 22, 2026@SASW15-0.2
May 24, 2026@SASL-210.5
May 26, 2026vsSASW133.1
May 28, 2026@SASL-270.6
May 30, 2026vsSASL-83.5

Read next

Method

Read against .

  • Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.8 in 2024-25, plus 1.7 in 2025-26 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
  • Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 93% in 2024-25, 94% in 2025-26 of the difference the model predicts.
  • The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 15 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
  • 39 games in 2024-25 and 2025-26 are neither on a back-to-back nor with a day off or more, and sit out.