The Raptors' points of margin vs a division opponent and vs a team outside the division
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Through the Raptors' game on May 3, 2026.
Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Raptors were 8.4 points under vs a division opponent and 2.2 points over vs a team outside the division in 2025-26, 17 games against 72. The plain averages are -7.4 and 4.7, a difference of 12.0. All 7 playoff games were vs a team outside the division.
The Raptors' −10.6 vs a division opponent and vs a team outside the division over expected ranks 30th of the 30 teams with 10 games on each side in 2025-26 through May 3.
points of margin a game over expected
A −10.6 difference in points of margin over expected vs a division opponent and vs a team outside the division is rare: shuffle which games were vs a division opponent and it comes up less than once in 100.
A −12.0 difference in points of margin vs a division opponent and vs a team outside the division is rare: shuffle which games were vs a division opponent and it comes up less than once in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 2025 | @ ATL | W | 20 | -1.0 | |
| Oct 24, 2025 | vs MIL | L | -6 | 10.4 | |
| Oct 26, 2025 | @ DAL | L | -10 | 6.2 | |
| Oct 27, 2025 | @ SAS | L | -18 | -7.7 | |
| Oct 29, 2025 | vs HOU | L | -18 | 0.3 | |
| Oct 31, 2025 | @ CLE | W | 11 | -2.7 | |
| Nov 2, 2025 | vs MEM | W | 13 | 9.5 | |
| Nov 4, 2025 | vsMIL | W | 28 | 9.7 | |
| Nov 7, 2025 | @ATL | W | 12 | -0.9 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ PHI | L | -10 | 1.6 | |
| Nov 11, 2025 | @ BKN | W | 10 | 9.4 | |
| Nov 13, 2025 | @CLE | W | 13 | -2.8 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ IND | W | 18 | 7.9 | |
| Nov 17, 2025 | vs CHA | W | 2 | -0.1 | |
| Nov 19, 2025 | @PHI | W | 9 | 1.2 | |
| Nov 21, 2025 | vs WAS | W | 30 | 14.7 | |
| Nov 23, 2025 | vsBKN | W | 10 | 12.7 | |
| Nov 24, 2025 | vsCLE | W | 11 | 0.6 | |
| Nov 26, 2025 | vsIND | W | 2 | 11.6 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @CHA | L | -7 | -3.3 | |
| Nov 30, 2025 | @ NYK | L | -22 | -6.7 | |
| Dec 2, 2025 | vs POR | W | 3 | 4.6 | |
| Dec 4, 2025 | vs LAL | L | -3 | 2.6 | |
| Dec 5, 2025 | vsCHA | L | -25 | 0.5 | |
| Dec 7, 2025 | vs BOS | L | -8 | -2.3 | |
| Dec 9, 2025 | vsNYK | L | -16 | -3.5 | |
| Dec 15, 2025 | @ MIA | W | 10 | -1.6 | |
| Dec 18, 2025 | @MIL | W | 6 | 6.8 | |
| Dec 20, 2025 | vsBOS | L | -16 | -2.1 | |
| Dec 21, 2025 | @BKN | L | -15 | 10.0 | |
| Dec 23, 2025 | @MIA | W | 21 | -1.9 | |
| Dec 26, 2025 | @WAS | L | -21 | 12.5 | |
| Dec 28, 2025 | vs GSW | W | 14 | 4.2 | |
| Dec 29, 2025 | vs ORL | W | 1 | 3.3 | |
| Dec 31, 2025 | vs DEN | L | -3 | -0.1 | |
| Jan 3, 2026 | vsATL | W | 17 | 2.3 | |
| Jan 5, 2026 | vsATL | W | 18 | 2.3 | |
| Jan 7, 2026 | @CHA | W | 1 | -3.4 | |
| Jan 9, 2026 | @BOS | L | -8 | -5.6 | |
| Jan 11, 2026 | vsPHI | W | 1 | 4.7 | |
| Jan 12, 2026 | vsPHI | L | -13 | 4.9 | |
| Jan 14, 2026 | @IND | W | 14 | 8.0 | |
| Jan 16, 2026 | vs LAC | L | -4 | 3.4 | |
| Jan 18, 2026 | @LAL | L | -17 | -0.4 | |
| Jan 20, 2026 | @GSW | W | 18 | 0.8 | |
| Jan 21, 2026 | @ SAC | W | 13 | 9.8 | |
| Jan 23, 2026 | @POR | W | 12 | 1.0 | |
| Jan 25, 2026 | @ OKC | W | 2 | -9.9 | |
| Jan 28, 2026 | vsNYK | L | -27 | -3.3 | |
| Jan 30, 2026 | @ORL | L | -10 | 0.2 | |
| Feb 1, 2026 | vs UTA | W | 7 | 11.8 | |
| Feb 4, 2026 | vs MIN | L | -2 | 1.5 | |
| Feb 5, 2026 | vs CHI | W | 16 | 8.7 | |
| Feb 8, 2026 | vsIND | W | 18 | 11.2 | |
| Feb 11, 2026 | vs DET | L | -18 | -2.1 | |
| Feb 19, 2026 | @CHI | W | 9 | 5.5 | |
| Feb 22, 2026 | @MIL | W | 28 | 6.3 | |
| Feb 24, 2026 | vsOKC | L | -9 | -6.3 | |
| Feb 25, 2026 | vsSAS | L | -3 | -4.7 | |
| Feb 28, 2026 | @WAS | W | 9 | 11.9 | |
| Mar 3, 2026 | vsNYK | L | -16 | -3.5 | |
| Mar 5, 2026 | @MIN | L | -8 | -1.7 | |
| Mar 8, 2026 | vsDAL | W | 30 | 8.6 | |
| Mar 10, 2026 | @HOU | L | -14 | -3.1 | |
| Mar 11, 2026 | @ NOP | L | -11 | 5.2 | |
| Mar 13, 2026 | vs PHX | W | 7 | 2.7 | |
| Mar 15, 2026 | vsDET | W | 11 | -2.7 | |
| Mar 18, 2026 | @CHI | W | 30 | 5.1 | |
| Mar 20, 2026 | @DEN | L | -6 | -3.3 | |
| Mar 22, 2026 | @PHX | L | -22 | 0.0 | |
| Mar 23, 2026 | @UTA | W | 16 | 8.2 | |
| Mar 25, 2026 | @LAC | L | -25 | 0.5 | |
| Mar 27, 2026 | vsNOP | W | 13 | 8.0 | |
| Mar 29, 2026 | vsORL | W | 52 | 2.2 | |
| Mar 31, 2026 | @DET | L | -11 | -5.6 | |
| Apr 1, 2026 | vsSAC | L | -8 | 13.6 | |
| Apr 3, 2026 | @MEM | W | 32 | 5.8 | |
| Apr 5, 2026 | @BOS | L | -14 | -5.5 | |
| Apr 7, 2026 | vsMIA | W | 26 | 1.4 | |
| Apr 9, 2026 | vsMIA | W | 14 | 1.6 | |
| Apr 10, 2026 | @NYK | L | -17 | -6.8 | |
| Apr 12, 2026 | vsBKN | W | 27 | 12.4 | |
| Apr 18, 2026 | @CLE | L | -13 | -2.2 | |
| Apr 20, 2026 | @CLE | L | -10 | -2.3 | |
| Apr 23, 2026 | vsCLE | W | 22 | 0.4 | |
| Apr 26, 2026 | vsCLE | W | 4 | 0.7 | |
| Apr 29, 2026 | @CLE | L | -5 | -2.4 | |
| May 1, 2026 | vsCLE | W | 2 | 0.8 | |
| May 3, 2026 | @CLE | L | -12 | -2.3 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2025-26 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 94% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 15 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.