Putting Up Numbers· NBA

The Lakers' points vs a team over .500 and vs a team at .500 or under

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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Lakers were 2.4 points under vs a team over .500 and 4.0 points over vs a team at .500 or under in 2025-26, 38 games against 33. The plain averages are 110.0 and 123.0, a difference of 13.0.

The Lakers' −6.4 vs a team over .500 and vs a team at .500 or under over expected ranks 30th of the 30 teams with 10 games on each side in 2025-26.

points a game over expected

A −6.4 difference in points over expected vs a team over .500 and vs a team at .500 or under is rare: shuffle which games were vs a team over .500 and it comes up less than once in 100.

A −13.0 difference in points vs a team over .500 and vs a team at .500 or under is rare: shuffle which games were vs a team over .500 and it comes up less than once in 100.

The games

vs a team over .500vs a team at .500 or under
Los Angeles Lakers’ games, 2025-26, each marked vs a team over .500 or vs a team at .500 or under
SideDateGameResultpointsExpected
Oct 21, 2025vsGSWL109116.1
Oct 24, 2025vsMINW128114.7
Oct 26, 2025@SACW127119.4
Oct 27, 2025vsPORL108116.3
Oct 29, 2025@MINW116113.3
Oct 31, 2025@MEMW117119.4
Nov 2, 2025vsMIAW130119.1
Nov 3, 2025@PORW123114.4
Nov 5, 2025vsSASW118111.0
Nov 8, 2025@ATLL102115.9
Nov 10, 2025@CHAW121110.7
Nov 12, 2025@OKCL92108.1
Nov 14, 2025@NOPW118118.9
Nov 15, 2025@MILW119116.2
Nov 18, 2025vsUTAW140125.6
Nov 23, 2025@UTAW108124.7
Nov 25, 2025vsLACW135113.3
Nov 28, 2025vsDALW129119.8
Nov 30, 2025vsNOPW133120.2
Dec 1, 2025vsPHXL108112.7
Dec 4, 2025@TORW123111.2
Dec 5, 2025@BOSL105107.1
Dec 7, 2025@PHIW112115.3
Dec 10, 2025vsSASL119111.0
Dec 14, 2025@PHXW116110.9
Dec 18, 2025@UTAW143123.9
Dec 20, 2025@LACL88112.7
Dec 23, 2025@PHXL108111.1
Dec 25, 2025vsHOUL96111.0
Dec 28, 2025vsSACW125121.1
Dec 30, 2025vsDETL106110.3
Jan 2, 2026vsMEMW128120.8
Jan 4, 2026vsMEMW120121.0
Jan 6, 2026@NOPW111119.1
Jan 7, 2026@SASL91109.9
Jan 9, 2026vsMILL101118.2
Jan 12, 2026@SACL112119.7
Jan 13, 2026vsATLW141116.7
Jan 15, 2026vsCHAL117112.4
Jan 17, 2026@PORL116114.5
Jan 18, 2026vsTORW110113.1
Jan 20, 2026@DENW115115.8
Jan 22, 2026@LACL104112.4
Jan 24, 2026@DALW116118.5
Jan 26, 2026@CHIW129120.2
Jan 28, 2026@CLEL99114.4
Jan 30, 2026@WASW142123.0
Feb 1, 2026@NYKL100108.2
Feb 3, 2026@BKNW125114.8
Feb 5, 2026vsPHIW119116.7
Feb 7, 2026vsGSWW105116.1
Feb 9, 2026vsOKCL110109.4
Feb 10, 2026vsSASL108111.2
Feb 12, 2026vsDALW124119.9
Feb 20, 2026vsLACW125113.5
Feb 22, 2026vsBOSL89109.1
Feb 24, 2026vsORLL109115.1
Feb 26, 2026@PHXL110111.0
Feb 28, 2026@GSWW129114.0
Mar 1, 2026vsSACW128121.0
Mar 3, 2026vsNOPW110120.7
Mar 5, 2026@DENL113115.9
Mar 6, 2026vsINDW128120.8
Mar 8, 2026vsNYKW110109.6
Mar 10, 2026vsMINW120114.8
Mar 12, 2026vsCHIW142121.6
Mar 14, 2026vsDENW127117.2
Mar 16, 2026@HOUW100109.4
Mar 18, 2026@HOUW124108.9
Mar 19, 2026@MIAW134117.4
Mar 21, 2026@ORLW105113.6
Mar 23, 2026@DETL110108.7
Mar 25, 2026@INDW137119.0
Mar 27, 2026vsBKNW116116.6
Mar 30, 2026vsWASW120125.1
Mar 31, 2026vsCLEW127115.5
Apr 2, 2026@OKCL96108.0
Apr 5, 2026@DALL128118.2
Apr 7, 2026vsOKCL87109.8
Apr 9, 2026@GSWW119114.2
Apr 10, 2026vsPHXW101112.8
Apr 12, 2026vsUTAW131125.8
Apr 18, 2026vsHOUW107110.8
Apr 21, 2026vsHOUW101110.9
Apr 24, 2026@HOUW112109.1
Apr 26, 2026@HOUL96109.4
Apr 29, 2026vsHOUL93111.1
May 1, 2026@HOUW98109.4
May 5, 2026@OKCL90108.2
May 7, 2026@OKCL107107.8
May 9, 2026vsOKCL108109.4
May 11, 2026vsOKCL110109.4

Read next

Method

Read against .

  • Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2025-26 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.9 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
  • Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 90% of the difference the model predicts.
  • The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 15 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.