
The Kings' turnovers vs a division opponent and vs a team outside the division
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Through the Kings' game on Nov 4, 2026.
Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Kings were 1.4 turnovers over vs a division opponent and 0.4 turnovers under vs a team outside the division over their last 165 games, 33 games against 132. The plain averages are 15.0 and 12.9, a difference of 2.1.
The Kings' +1.8 vs a division opponent and vs a team outside the division over expected ranks 2nd of the 30 teams with 10 games on each side over their last 165 games through Nov 4, 2026.
turnovers a game over expected
A +1.8 difference in turnovers over expected vs a division opponent and vs a team outside the division is rare: shuffle which games were vs a division opponent and it comes up less than once in 100.
A +2.1 difference in turnovers vs a division opponent and vs a team outside the division is rare: shuffle which games were vs a division opponent and it comes up less than once in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | turnovers | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 6, 2024 | vs | W | 9 | 13.5 | |
| Nov 8, 2024 | vs | L | 13 | 13.4 | |
| Nov 10, 2024 | @ | W | 14 | 10.9 | |
| Nov 11, 2024 | @ | L | 11 | 12.2 | |
| Nov 13, 2024 | vs | W | 17 | 10.7 | |
| Nov 15, 2024 | vs | L | 13 | 13.0 | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | vs | W | 14 | 10.7 | |
| Nov 18, 2024 | vs | L | 17 | 14.3 | |
| Nov 22, 2024 | @ | L | 15 | 13.5 | |
| Nov 24, 2024 | vs | L | 16 | 13.3 | |
| Nov 25, 2024 | vs | L | 12 | 15.3 | |
| Nov 27, 2024 | @ | W | 16 | 13.2 | |
| Nov 29, 2024 | @ | L | 20 | 13.6 | |
| Dec 1, 2024 | vs | L | 10 | 12.0 | |
| Dec 3, 2024 | vs | W | 10 | 12.7 | |
| Dec 5, 2024 | @ | L | 13 | 13.8 | |
| Dec 6, 2024 | @ | W | 11 | 12.2 | |
| Dec 8, 2024 | vs | W | 8 | 10.8 | |
| Dec 12, 2024 | @ | W | 11 | 12.6 | |
| Dec 16, 2024 | vs | L | 11 | 11.6 | |
| Dec 19, 2024 | vs | L | 15 | 11.9 | |
| Dec 21, 2024 | vs | L | 13 | 11.9 | |
| Dec 22, 2024 | vs | L | 10 | 13.5 | |
| Dec 26, 2024 | vs | L | 14 | 13.3 | |
| Dec 28, 2024 | @ | L | 9 | 12.2 | |
| Dec 30, 2024 | vs | W | 15 | 11.8 | |
| Jan 1, 2025 | vs | W | 17 | 14.2 | |
| Jan 3, 2025 | vs | W | 9 | 13.7 | |
| Jan 5, 2025 | @ | W | 15 | 14.1 | |
| Jan 6, 2025 | vs | W | 15 | 11.9 | |
| Jan 10, 2025 | @ | W | 9 | 11.6 | |
| Jan 12, 2025 | @ | W | 8 | 11.4 | |
| Jan 14, 2025 | @ | L | 9 | 11.6 | |
| Jan 16, 2025 | vs | W | 12 | 12.6 | |
| Jan 19, 2025 | vs | W | 11 | 11.8 | |
| Jan 22, 2025 | vs | W | 8 | 14.0 | |
| Jan 23, 2025 | @ | L | 13 | 11.8 | |
| Jan 25, 2025 | @ | L | 12 | 13.2 | |
| Jan 27, 2025 | @ | W | 17 | 13.4 | |
| Jan 29, 2025 | @ | L | 12 | 14.5 | |
| Feb 1, 2025 | @ | L | 7 | 15.6 | |
| Feb 3, 2025 | @ | W | 10 | 13.3 | |
| Feb 5, 2025 | vs | L | 17 | 14.2 | |
| Feb 6, 2025 | @ | L | 10 | 13.8 | |
| Feb 8, 2025 | vs | W | 18 | 12.2 | |
| Feb 10, 2025 | @ | W | 20 | 11.8 | |
| Feb 12, 2025 | @ | W | 11 | 12.6 | |
| Feb 13, 2025 | @ | L | 14 | 12.5 | |
| Feb 21, 2025 | vs | L | 21 | 13.7 | |
| Feb 24, 2025 | vs | W | 18 | 11.7 | |
| Feb 26, 2025 | @ | W | 12 | 10.9 | |
| Mar 1, 2025 | @ | W | 13 | 12.8 | |
| Mar 3, 2025 | @ | W | 7 | 12.1 | |
| Mar 5, 2025 | @ | L | 12 | 11.8 | |
| Mar 7, 2025 | vs | W | 8 | 12.1 | |
| Mar 9, 2025 | @ | L | 8 | 13.7 | |
| Mar 10, 2025 | vs | L | 16 | 12.9 | |
| Mar 13, 2025 | @ | L | 14 | 14.1 | |
| Mar 14, 2025 | @ | L | 19 | 10.8 | |
| Mar 17, 2025 | vs | W | 12 | 13.6 | |
| Mar 19, 2025 | vs | W | 11 | 12.9 | |
| Mar 20, 2025 | vs | L | 11 | 11.2 | |
| Mar 22, 2025 | vs | L | 8 | 11.4 | |
| Mar 24, 2025 | vs | L | 14 | 11.3 | |
| Mar 25, 2025 | vs | L | 11 | 15.3 | |
| Mar 27, 2025 | vs | W | 20 | 13.4 | |
| Mar 29, 2025 | @ | L | 16 | 14.4 | |
| Mar 31, 2025 | @ | L | 11 | 13.6 | |
| Apr 2, 2025 | @ | L | 11 | 12.0 | |
| Apr 4, 2025 | @ | W | 6 | 12.1 | |
| Apr 6, 2025 | @ | W | 14 | 13.1 | |
| Apr 7, 2025 | @ | W | 10 | 13.6 | |
| Apr 9, 2025 | vs | L | 8 | 11.7 | |
| Apr 11, 2025 | vs | L | 11 | 13.4 | |
| Apr 13, 2025 | vs | W | 11 | 10.8 | |
| Oct 22, 2025 | @ | L | 13 | 15.1 | |
| Oct 24, 2025 | vs | W | 13 | 13.7 | |
| Oct 26, 2025 | vs | L | 15 | 13.6 | |
| Oct 28, 2025 | @ | L | 17 | 15.6 | |
| Oct 29, 2025 | @ | L | 10 | 12.6 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @ | W | 9 | 12.5 | |
| Nov 3, 2025 | @ | L | 15 | 11.4 | |
| Nov 5, 2025 | vs | W | 16 | 14.9 | |
| Nov 7, 2025 | vs | L | 15 | 15.5 | |
| Nov 9, 2025 | vs | L | 16 | 13.9 | |
| Nov 11, 2025 | vs | L | 10 | 11.3 | |
| Nov 12, 2025 | vs | L | 18 | 14.6 | |
| Nov 14, 2025 | @ | L | 15 | 14.1 | |
| Nov 16, 2025 | @ | L | 12 | 12.5 | |
| Nov 19, 2025 | @ | L | 18 | 15.6 | |
| Nov 20, 2025 | @ | L | 16 | 14.7 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ | W | 6 | 11.6 | |
| Nov 24, 2025 | vs | W | 12 | 14.0 | |
| Nov 26, 2025 | vs | L | 19 | 14.8 | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | @ | L | 9 | 14.0 | |
| Nov 30, 2025 | vs | L | 8 | 14.7 | |
| Dec 3, 2025 | @ | L | 12 | 13.1 | |
| Dec 6, 2025 | @ | W | 10 | 14.3 | |
| Dec 8, 2025 | @ | L | 19 | 12.8 | |
| Dec 11, 2025 | vs | L | 16 | 11.2 | |
| Dec 14, 2025 | @ | L | 15 | 14.1 | |
| Dec 18, 2025 | @ | L | 18 | 14.7 | |
| Dec 20, 2025 | vs | L | 15 | 14.6 | |
| Dec 21, 2025 | vs | W | 11 | 12.9 | |
| Dec 23, 2025 | vs | L | 13 | 15.4 | |
| Dec 27, 2025 | vs | W | 11 | 12.6 | |
| Dec 28, 2025 | @ | L | 19 | 13.7 | |
| Dec 30, 2025 | @ | L | 18 | 13.4 | |
| Jan 1, 2026 | vs | L | 9 | 11.8 | |
| Jan 2, 2026 | @ | L | 21 | 15.0 | |
| Jan 4, 2026 | vs | L | 10 | 12.3 | |
| Jan 6, 2026 | vs | L | 12 | 12.6 | |
| Jan 9, 2026 | @ | L | 12 | 15.2 | |
| Jan 11, 2026 | vs | W | 9 | 13.0 | |
| Jan 12, 2026 | vs | W | 12 | 13.7 | |
| Jan 14, 2026 | vs | W | 15 | 13.8 | |
| Jan 16, 2026 | vs | W | 18 | 12.9 | |
| Jan 18, 2026 | vs | L | 16 | 14.6 | |
| Jan 20, 2026 | vs | L | 15 | 14.0 | |
| Jan 21, 2026 | vs | L | 14 | 14.8 | |
| Jan 23, 2026 | @ | L | 11 | 14.1 | |
| Jan 25, 2026 | @ | L | 19 | 15.4 | |
| Jan 27, 2026 | @ | L | 16 | 13.9 | |
| Jan 29, 2026 | @ | L | 16 | 14.5 | |
| Jan 30, 2026 | @ | L | 14 | 11.9 | |
| Feb 1, 2026 | @ | L | 14 | 13.2 | |
| Feb 4, 2026 | vs | L | 13 | 14.6 | |
| Feb 6, 2026 | vs | L | 11 | 13.4 | |
| Feb 7, 2026 | vs | L | 15 | 13.9 | |
| Feb 9, 2026 | @ | L | 14 | 13.6 | |
| Feb 11, 2026 | @ | L | 12 | 13.9 | |
| Feb 19, 2026 | vs | L | 19 | 14.0 | |
| Feb 21, 2026 | @ | L | 12 | 12.5 | |
| Feb 23, 2026 | @ | W | 15 | 14.7 | |
| Feb 25, 2026 | @ | L | 12 | 13.1 | |
| Feb 26, 2026 | @ | W | 4 | 12.9 | |
| Mar 1, 2026 | @ | L | 20 | 13.7 | |
| Mar 3, 2026 | vs | L | 14 | 14.9 | |
| Mar 5, 2026 | vs | L | 7 | 13.5 | |
| Mar 8, 2026 | vs | W | 3 | 12.6 | |
| Mar 10, 2026 | vs | W | 11 | 12.8 | |
| Mar 11, 2026 | vs | L | 13 | 12.2 | |
| Mar 14, 2026 | @ | W | 19 | 13.4 | |
| Mar 15, 2026 | vs | W | 18 | 13.6 | |
| Mar 17, 2026 | vs | L | 8 | 12.4 | |
| Mar 19, 2026 | vs | L | 13 | 14.3 | |
| Mar 22, 2026 | vs | W | 16 | 13.4 | |
| Mar 24, 2026 | @ | L | 12 | 12.4 | |
| Mar 26, 2026 | @ | L | 9 | 14.4 | |
| Mar 28, 2026 | @ | L | 15 | 14.9 | |
| Mar 29, 2026 | @ | L | 15 | 13.6 | |
| Apr 1, 2026 | @ | W | 13 | 15.1 | |
| Apr 3, 2026 | vs | W | 14 | 13.4 | |
| Apr 5, 2026 | vs | L | 20 | 13.2 | |
| Apr 7, 2026 | @ | L | 14 | 15.1 | |
| Apr 10, 2026 | vs | W | 16 | 14.9 | |
| Apr 12, 2026 | @ | L | 16 | 14.8 | |
| Oct 21, 2026 | @ | L | 17 | 15.8 | |
| Oct 23, 2026 | vs | L | 14 | 15.2 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | vs | L | 14 | 15.2 | |
| Oct 27, 2026 | @ | L | 13 | 15.2 | |
| Oct 29, 2026 | @ | L | 25 | 15.5 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ | L | 13 | 15.3 | |
| Nov 2, 2026 | @ | W | 17 | 15.5 | |
| Nov 4, 2026 | vs | L | 17 | 16.5 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 0.1 in 2024-25, minus 0.1 in 2025-26, plus 0.1 in 2026-27 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 89% in 2024-25, 88% in 2025-26, 32% in 2026-27 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 15 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Read against the season’s ratings as of Nov 4, 2026; the games are the ones through Nov 4.