Putting Up Numbers· NBA

The Kings' turnovers vs a division opponent and vs a team outside the division

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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Kings were 1.4 turnovers over vs a division opponent and 0.4 turnovers under vs a team outside the division over their last 165 games, 33 games against 132. The plain averages are 15.0 and 12.9, a difference of 2.1.

The Kings' +1.8 vs a division opponent and vs a team outside the division over expected ranks 2nd of the 30 teams with 10 games on each side over their last 165 games through Nov 4, 2026.

turnovers a game over expected

A +1.8 difference in turnovers over expected vs a division opponent and vs a team outside the division is rare: shuffle which games were vs a division opponent and it comes up less than once in 100.

A +2.1 difference in turnovers vs a division opponent and vs a team outside the division is rare: shuffle which games were vs a division opponent and it comes up less than once in 100.

The games

vs a division opponentvs a team outside the division
Sacramento Kings’ games, last 165 games, each marked vs a division opponent or vs a team outside the division
SideDateGameResultturnoversExpected
Nov 6, 2024vsTORW913.5
Nov 8, 2024vsLACL1313.4
Nov 10, 2024@PHXW1410.9
Nov 11, 2024@SASL1112.2
Nov 13, 2024vsPHXW1710.7
Nov 15, 2024vsMINL1313.0
Nov 16, 2024vsUTAW1410.7
Nov 18, 2024vsATLL1714.3
Nov 22, 2024@LACL1513.5
Nov 24, 2024vsBKNL1613.3
Nov 25, 2024vsOKCL1215.3
Nov 27, 2024@MINW1613.2
Nov 29, 2024@PORL2013.6
Dec 1, 2024vsSASL1012.0
Dec 3, 2024vsHOUW1012.7
Dec 5, 2024@MEML1313.8
Dec 6, 2024@SASW1112.2
Dec 8, 2024vsUTAW810.8
Dec 12, 2024@NOPW1112.6
Dec 16, 2024vsDENL1111.6
Dec 19, 2024vsLALL1511.9
Dec 21, 2024vsLALL1311.9
Dec 22, 2024vsINDL1013.5
Dec 26, 2024vsDETL1413.3
Dec 28, 2024@LALL912.2
Dec 30, 2024vsDALW1511.8
Jan 1, 2025vsPHIW1714.2
Jan 3, 2025vsMEMW913.7
Jan 5, 2025@GSWW1514.1
Jan 6, 2025vsMIAW1511.9
Jan 10, 2025@BOSW911.6
Jan 12, 2025@CHIW811.4
Jan 14, 2025@MILL911.6
Jan 16, 2025vsHOUW1212.6
Jan 19, 2025vsWASW1111.8
Jan 22, 2025vsGSWW814.0
Jan 23, 2025@DENL1311.8
Jan 25, 2025@NYKL1213.2
Jan 27, 2025@BKNW1713.4
Jan 29, 2025@PHIL1214.5
Feb 1, 2025@OKCL715.6
Feb 3, 2025@MINW1013.3
Feb 5, 2025vsORLL1714.2
Feb 6, 2025@PORL1013.8
Feb 8, 2025vsNOPW1812.2
Feb 10, 2025@DALW2011.8
Feb 12, 2025@NOPW1112.6
Feb 13, 2025@NOPL1412.5
Feb 21, 2025vsGSWL2113.7
Feb 24, 2025vsCHAW1811.7
Feb 26, 2025@UTAW1210.9
Mar 1, 2025@HOUW1312.8
Mar 3, 2025@DALW712.1
Mar 5, 2025@DENL1211.8
Mar 7, 2025vsSASW812.1
Mar 9, 2025@LACL813.7
Mar 10, 2025vsNYKL1612.9
Mar 13, 2025@GSWL1414.1
Mar 14, 2025@PHXL1910.8
Mar 17, 2025vsMEMW1213.6
Mar 19, 2025vsCLEW1112.9
Mar 20, 2025vsCHIL1111.2
Mar 22, 2025vsMILL811.4
Mar 24, 2025vsBOSL1411.3
Mar 25, 2025vsOKCL1115.3
Mar 27, 2025vsPORW2013.4
Mar 29, 2025@ORLL1614.4
Mar 31, 2025@INDL1113.6
Apr 2, 2025@WASL1112.0
Apr 4, 2025@CHAW612.1
Apr 6, 2025@CLEW1413.1
Apr 7, 2025@DETW1013.6
Apr 9, 2025vsDENL811.7
Apr 11, 2025vsLACL1113.4
Apr 13, 2025vsPHXW1110.8
Oct 22, 2025@PHXL1315.1
Oct 24, 2025vsUTAW1313.7
Oct 26, 2025vsLALL1513.6
Oct 28, 2025@OKCL1715.6
Oct 29, 2025@CHIL1012.6
Nov 1, 2025@MILW912.5
Nov 3, 2025@DENL1511.4
Nov 5, 2025vsGSWW1614.9
Nov 7, 2025vsOKCL1515.5
Nov 9, 2025vsMINL1613.9
Nov 11, 2025vsDENL1011.3
Nov 12, 2025vsATLL1814.6
Nov 14, 2025@MINL1514.1
Nov 16, 2025@SASL1212.5
Nov 19, 2025@OKCL1815.6
Nov 20, 2025@MEML1614.7
Nov 22, 2025@DENW611.6
Nov 24, 2025vsMINW1214.0
Nov 26, 2025vsPHXL1914.8
Nov 28, 2025@UTAL914.0
Nov 30, 2025vsMEML814.7
Dec 3, 2025@HOUL1213.1
Dec 6, 2025@MIAW1014.3
Dec 8, 2025@INDL1912.8
Dec 11, 2025vsDENL1611.2
Dec 14, 2025@MINL1514.1
Dec 18, 2025@PORL1814.7
Dec 20, 2025vsPORL1514.6
Dec 21, 2025vsHOUW1112.9
Dec 23, 2025vsDETL1315.4
Dec 27, 2025vsDALW1112.6
Dec 28, 2025@LALL1913.7
Dec 30, 2025@LACL1813.4
Jan 1, 2026vsBOSL911.8
Jan 2, 2026@PHXL2115.0
Jan 4, 2026vsMILL1012.3
Jan 6, 2026vsDALL1212.6
Jan 9, 2026@GSWL1215.2
Jan 11, 2026vsHOUW913.0
Jan 12, 2026vsLALW1213.7
Jan 14, 2026vsNYKW1513.8
Jan 16, 2026vsWASW1812.9
Jan 18, 2026vsPORL1614.6
Jan 20, 2026vsMIAL1514.0
Jan 21, 2026vsTORL1414.8
Jan 23, 2026@CLEL1114.1
Jan 25, 2026@DETL1915.4
Jan 27, 2026@NYKL1613.9
Jan 29, 2026@PHIL1614.5
Jan 30, 2026@BOSL1411.9
Feb 1, 2026@WASL1413.2
Feb 4, 2026vsMEML1314.6
Feb 6, 2026vsLACL1113.4
Feb 7, 2026vsCLEL1513.9
Feb 9, 2026@NOPL1413.6
Feb 11, 2026@UTAL1213.9
Feb 19, 2026vsORLL1914.0
Feb 21, 2026@SASL1212.5
Feb 23, 2026@MEMW1514.7
Feb 25, 2026@HOUL1213.1
Feb 26, 2026@DALW412.9
Mar 1, 2026@LALL2013.7
Mar 3, 2026vsPHXL1414.9
Mar 5, 2026vsNOPL713.5
Mar 8, 2026vsCHIW312.6
Mar 10, 2026vsINDW1112.8
Mar 11, 2026vsCHAL1312.2
Mar 14, 2026@LACW1913.4
Mar 15, 2026vsUTAW1813.6
Mar 17, 2026vsSASL812.4
Mar 19, 2026vsPHIL1314.3
Mar 22, 2026vsBKNW1613.4
Mar 24, 2026@CHAL1212.4
Mar 26, 2026@ORLL914.4
Mar 28, 2026@ATLL1514.9
Mar 29, 2026@BKNL1513.6
Apr 1, 2026@TORW1315.1
Apr 3, 2026vsNOPW1413.4
Apr 5, 2026vsLACL2013.2
Apr 7, 2026@GSWL1415.1
Apr 10, 2026vsGSWW1614.9
Apr 12, 2026@PORL1614.8
Oct 21, 2026@LACL1715.8
Oct 23, 2026vsPORL1415.2
Oct 25, 2026vsMEML1415.2
Oct 27, 2026@SASL1315.2
Oct 29, 2026@NOPL2515.5
Oct 31, 2026@MEML1315.3
Nov 2, 2026@DALW1715.5
Nov 4, 2026vsLALL1716.5

Method

Read against .

  • Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 0.1 in 2024-25, minus 0.1 in 2025-26, plus 0.1 in 2026-27 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
  • Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 89% in 2024-25, 88% in 2025-26, 32% in 2026-27 of the difference the model predicts.
  • The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 15 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
  • Read against the season’s ratings as of Nov 4, 2026; the games are the ones through Nov 4.