The Heat's points at home and away
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Heat were 2.9 points over at home and 2.0 points over away in 2026-27, 4 games against 4. The plain averages are 117.8 and 118.3, a difference of 0.5. Expected was 1.4 points lower at home than away. Both division games were away.
4 games at home is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points a game over expected
at home
+2.9
away
+2.0
0102030
A +0.9 difference in points over expected at home vs away is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up 14 times in 100.
plain
117.8
118.3
110120130140
A −0.5 difference in points at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 2026 | vs MIN | L | 106 | 114.0 | |
| Oct 23, 2026 | vs DET | L | 111 | 115.4 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ CHA | L | 110 | 117.8 | |
| Oct 26, 2026 | vs DAL | L | 109 | 116.2 | |
| Oct 28, 2026 | @ ATL | W | 129 | 114.8 | |
| Oct 30, 2026 | vs IND | W | 145 | 113.8 | |
| Nov 2, 2026 | @ LAL | L | 117 | 116.4 | |
| Nov 4, 2026 | @ LAC | W | 117 | 116.1 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026-27 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.5 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 47% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 15 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.