Putting Up Numbers· NBA

The Bulls’ rebounds on a back-to-back and with a day off or more

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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Bulls were 3.1 rebounds over on a back-to-back and 0.6 rebounds under with a day off or more in 2025-26, 14 games against 67. The plain averages are 48.4 and 44.3, a difference of 4.2. All 5 games without Matas Buzelis were with a day off or more.

The Bulls’ +3.7 on a back-to-back vs with a day off or more over expected ranks 2nd of the 30 teams with 10 games on each side in 2025-26.

rebounds a game over expected

A +3.7 difference in rebounds over expected on a back-to-back vs with a day off or more is rare: shuffle which games were on a back-to-back and it comes up less than once in 100.

A +4.2 difference in rebounds on a back-to-back vs with a day off or more is rare: shuffle which games were on a back-to-back and it comes up less than once in 100.

The games

on a back-to-backwith a day off or more
Chicago Bulls’ games, 2025-26, each marked on a back-to-back or with a day off or more
SideDateGameResultreboundsExpected
Oct 22, 2025vsDETW5042.1
Oct 25, 2025@ORLW4644.6
Oct 27, 2025vsATLW5146.3
Oct 29, 2025vsSACW4645.2
Oct 31, 2025vsNYKW4141.7
Nov 2, 2025@NYKL4641.5
Nov 4, 2025vsPHIW4846.3
Nov 7, 2025@MILL4545.7
Nov 8, 2025@CLEL4944.1
Nov 10, 2025vsSASL4544.0
Nov 12, 2025@DETL4442.2
Nov 16, 2025@UTAL6046.5
Nov 17, 2025@DENW5344.2
Nov 19, 2025@PORW3844.4
Nov 21, 2025vsMIAL3947.7
Nov 22, 2025vsWASW5448.7
Nov 24, 2025@NOPL3347.1
Nov 28, 2025@CHAL4441.0
Nov 29, 2025@INDL4547.7
Dec 1, 2025@ORLL4344.7
Dec 3, 2025vsBKNL4244.8
Dec 5, 2025vsINDL4647.7
Dec 7, 2025vsGSWL3845.7
Dec 12, 2025@CHAW4441.0
Dec 14, 2025vsNOPL4347.0
Dec 17, 2025vsCLEW4344.3
Dec 19, 2025@CLEW4844.2
Dec 21, 2025@ATLW4046.5
Dec 23, 2025@ATLW4846.3
Dec 26, 2025vsPHIW5246.2
Dec 27, 2025vsMILL5245.6
Dec 29, 2025vsMINL4245.1
Dec 31, 2025vsNOPW4946.8
Jan 2, 2026vsORLW4744.7
Jan 3, 2026vsCHAL4341.1
Jan 5, 2026@BOSL4542.9
Jan 7, 2026@DETL4542.2
Jan 10, 2026vsDALW5247.8
Jan 13, 2026@HOUL4041.6
Jan 14, 2026vsUTAW4346.9
Jan 16, 2026@BKNL4144.8
Jan 18, 2026vsBKNW4444.8
Jan 20, 2026vsLACW4243.8
Jan 22, 2026@MINW4345.0
Jan 24, 2026vsBOSW4442.9
Jan 26, 2026vsLALL4042.2
Jan 28, 2026@INDL4747.7
Jan 29, 2026vsMIAL5247.4
Jan 31, 2026@MIAW4347.6
Feb 1, 2026@MIAL4747.5
Feb 3, 2026@MILL4345.8
Feb 5, 2026@TORL3844.5
Feb 7, 2026vsDENL3744.6
Feb 9, 2026@BKNL3944.9
Feb 11, 2026@BOSL3443.1
Feb 19, 2026vsTORL4644.3
Feb 21, 2026vsDETL4442.3
Feb 22, 2026vsNYKL5041.5
Feb 24, 2026vsCHAL3341.3
Feb 26, 2026vsPORL4144.4
Mar 1, 2026vsMILW5045.7
Mar 3, 2026vsOKCL5345.7
Mar 5, 2026@PHXW4644.9
Mar 8, 2026@SACL4945.1
Mar 10, 2026@GSWW6445.0
Mar 12, 2026@LALL4142.2
Mar 13, 2026@LACL4843.6
Mar 16, 2026vsMEMW4747.7
Mar 18, 2026vsTORL3644.6
Mar 19, 2026vsCLEL4744.2
Mar 23, 2026vsHOUW4541.6
Mar 25, 2026@PHIL4846.2
Mar 27, 2026@OKCL4745.8
Mar 28, 2026@MEML5347.5
Mar 30, 2026@SASL3544.1
Apr 1, 2026vsINDL4647.7
Apr 3, 2026@NYKL3641.7
Apr 5, 2026vsPHXL4645.0
Apr 7, 2026@WASW5248.7
Apr 9, 2026@WASW5148.7
Apr 10, 2026vsORLL4244.8
Apr 12, 2026@DALL4247.9

Read next

Method

Read against .

  • Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2025-26 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.0 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
  • Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 90% of the difference the model predicts.
  • The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 15 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.