Tre Jones’ points at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed guards, Tre Jones was 2.9 points under at home and 0.1 points over away in 2026-27, 3 games against 6. The plain averages are 9.0 and 11.0, a difference of 2.0.
3 games at home is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points a game over expected
at home
−2.9
away
+0.1
-50
A −3.0 difference in points over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
9.0
11.0
68101214
A −2.0 difference in points at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 2026 | @ TOR | L | 13 | 11.7 | |
| Oct 23, 2026 | @ MIL | W | 11 | 12.1 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs WAS | L | 10 | 13.0 | |
| Oct 26, 2026 | @ BOS | L | 8 | 9.8 | |
| Oct 28, 2026 | vs NYK | L | 11 | 11.2 | |
| Oct 30, 2026 | @BOS | L | 12 | 9.6 | |
| Nov 2, 2026 | @ PHI | L | 8 | 11.5 | |
| Nov 4, 2026 | @NYK | L | 14 | 11.1 | |
| Nov 8, 2026 | vsPHI | L | 6 | 11.6 |
Read next
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed guards in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.0 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for guards that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s guards’ points in his games, 19%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 96% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 15 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.