Tidjane Salaün’s points at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed forwards, Tidjane Salaün was 0.2 points over at home and 1.6 points over away in 2026-27, 5 games against 3. The plain averages are 5.0 and 5.7, a difference of 0.7. Expected was 0.8 points higher at home than away. Both back-to-backs were at home. All 3 first-half games were at home.
3 games away is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points a game over expected
at home
+0.2
away
+1.6
05
A −1.4 difference in points over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
5.0
5.7
510
A −0.7 difference in points at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2026 | vs ATL | L | 11 | 6.6 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs MIA | W | 3 | 4.8 | |
| Oct 26, 2026 | vs WAS | W | 5 | 4.4 | |
| Oct 28, 2026 | @ DET | L | 2 | 3.9 | |
| Oct 30, 2026 | @WAS | L | 6 | 4.3 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs PHI | L | 5 | 3.9 | |
| Nov 2, 2026 | vsDET | L | 1 | 4.5 | |
| Nov 4, 2026 | @ BKN | L | 9 | 4.0 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed forwards in its other 2026-27 games, plus 1.3 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for forwards that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s forwards’ points in his games, 13%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 85% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 15 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.