Sam Merrill’s points at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed guards, Sam Merrill was 2.5 points over at home and 3.8 points over away in 2026-27, 4 games against 4. The plain averages are 8.0 and 9.3, a difference of 1.3.
4 games at home is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points a game over expected
at home
+2.5
away
+3.8
0510
A −1.4 difference in points over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
8.0
9.3
51015
A −1.3 difference in points at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 2026 | @ PHI | L | 5 | 5.8 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs BKN | W | 7 | 5.8 | |
| Oct 26, 2026 | vs MIN | W | 9 | 5.3 | |
| Oct 28, 2026 | vs WAS | W | 8 | 5.3 | |
| Oct 29, 2026 | @ ATL | L | 16 | 3.5 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ MIL | W | 6 | 6.5 | |
| Nov 2, 2026 | vs OKC | L | 8 | 5.7 | |
| Nov 4, 2026 | @OKC | L | 10 | 5.8 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed guards in its other 2026-27 games, minus 1.3 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for guards that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s guards’ points in his games, 10%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 96% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 15 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.