Sam Hauser’s points at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed forwards, Sam Hauser was 0.1 points over at home and 3.3 points under away in 2026-27, 5 games against 3. The plain averages are 9.0 and 5.3, a difference of 3.7. Both division games were at home.
3 games away is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points a game over expected
at home
+0.1
away
−3.3
-50
A +3.4 difference in points over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
9.0
5.3
510
A +3.7 difference in points at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20, 2026 | @ DET | L | 11 | 8.7 | |
| Oct 23, 2026 | vs NYK | W | 6 | 9.8 | |
| Oct 26, 2026 | vs CHI | W | 11 | 8.1 | |
| Oct 27, 2026 | vs BKN | W | 11 | 9.2 | |
| Oct 30, 2026 | vsCHI | W | 6 | 8.2 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | @ ORL | W | 3 | 8.2 | |
| Nov 2, 2026 | @ HOU | L | 2 | 8.9 | |
| Nov 4, 2026 | vs MIL | W | 11 | 9.3 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed forwards in its other 2026-27 games, plus 1.3 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for forwards that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s forwards’ points in his games, 28%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 85% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 15 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.