Ryan Kalkbrenner’s points at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed centers, Ryan Kalkbrenner was 2.2 points over at home and 0.1 points under away in 2026-27, 5 games against 4. The plain averages are 5.6 and 3.3, a difference of 2.3. Both back-to-backs were at home.
4 games away is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points a game over expected
at home
+2.2
away
−0.1
-202
A +2.4 difference in points over expected at home vs away is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up 11 times in 100.
plain
5.6
3.3
246
A +2.3 difference in points at home vs away is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up 18 times in 100.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 2026 | @ BKN | W | 4 | 3.7 | |
| Oct 23, 2026 | vs ATL | L | 6 | 4.2 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs MIA | W | 6 | 2.2 | |
| Oct 26, 2026 | vs WAS | W | 6 | 3.2 | |
| Oct 28, 2026 | @ DET | L | 1 | 3.0 | |
| Oct 30, 2026 | @WAS | L | 2 | 3.4 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs PHI | L | 6 | 4.3 | |
| Nov 2, 2026 | vsDET | L | 4 | 2.9 | |
| Nov 4, 2026 | @BKN | L | 6 | 3.4 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed centers in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.6 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for centers that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s centers’ points in his games, 21%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 89% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 15 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.