Reed Sheppard’s points at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed guards, Reed Sheppard was 2.2 points under at home and 1.7 points over away in 2026-27, 4 games against 2. The plain averages are 9.5 and 13.0, a difference of 3.5.
2 games away is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points a game over expected
at home
−2.2
away
+1.7
-10010
A −3.9 difference in points over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
9.5
13.0
51015
A −3.5 difference in points at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 2026 | vs DAL | W | 3 | 13.6 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ ATL | W | 19 | 8.7 | |
| Oct 26, 2026 | vsATL | W | 13 | 8.4 | |
| Oct 28, 2026 | @ MIL | W | 7 | 13.9 | |
| Nov 2, 2026 | vs BOS | W | 8 | 11.9 | |
| Nov 4, 2026 | vs MIN | L | 14 | 12.9 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed guards in its other 2026-27 games, minus 1.3 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for guards that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s guards’ points in his games, 22%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 96% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 15 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.