Meleek Thomas’ points at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed guards, Meleek Thomas was 4.0 points over at home and 4.4 points over away in 2026-27, 5 games against 3. The plain averages are 12.8 and 13.3, a difference of 0.5. Both first-half games were at home.
3 games away is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points a game over expected
at home
+4.0
away
+4.4
05
A −0.5 difference in points over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
12.8
13.3
1015
A −0.5 difference in points at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26, 2026 | vs MIN | W | 16 | 8.1 | |
| Oct 28, 2026 | vs WAS | W | 10 | 9.9 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ MIL | W | 13 | 9.7 | |
| Nov 2, 2026 | vs OKC | L | 17 | 8.4 | |
| Nov 4, 2026 | @OKC | L | 9 | 8.3 | |
| Nov 6, 2026 | vs PHI | W | 12 | 8.9 | |
| Nov 7, 2026 | vs NYK | L | 9 | 8.8 | |
| Nov 9, 2026 | @ CHA | L | 18 | 8.7 |
Read next
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed guards in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.0 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for guards that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s guards’ points in his games, 16%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 96% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 15 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.