Max Christie’s points at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed guards, Max Christie was 6.1 points under at home and 0.7 points under away in 2026-27, 4 games against 3. The plain averages are 4.5 and 10.7, a difference of 6.2. All 3 second-half games were at home.
3 games away is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points a game over expected
at home
−6.1
away
−0.7
-505
A −5.3 difference in points over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
4.5
10.7
051015
A −6.2 difference in points at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 2026 | @ HOU | L | 5 | 11.8 | |
| Oct 23, 2026 | @ IND | W | 16 | 9.8 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs SAS | L | 5 | 9.9 | |
| Oct 26, 2026 | @ MIA | W | 11 | 12.7 | |
| Oct 28, 2026 | vs OKC | W | 11 | 11.1 | |
| Oct 30, 2026 | vsHOU | W | 2 | 11.3 | |
| Nov 2, 2026 | vs SAC | L | 0 | 10.0 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed guards in its other 2026-27 games, minus 1.3 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for guards that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s guards’ points in his games, 18%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 96% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 15 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.